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Tropical Storm Dolly ramped up from a depression overnight to a full-fledged tropical storm. Located in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico, Dolly is heading northwestward to impact Mexico just south of Brownsville, Texas.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Tropical Storm Dolly – visible image (night infared)

Tropical Storm Dolly – Aviation (AVN flase colour) image

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 98.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE DOLLY MOVES INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
MAINLY OVER THE WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.

The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

Tropical Depression One became the Atlantic’s first named storm this afternoon – Tropical Storm Arthur.
UPDATE 2014-07-03: Now upgraded to a category 1 hurricane.
UPDATE 2014-07-06: Once Arthur reached the maritimes, its strength as a hurricane diminished and will now slowly dissipate over the north Atlantic and into the Davis Strait.

___________________________________________________

COASTAL WEBCAMS:
While atill operational, shoreline views from popular surfing areas along the ‘Banks Coastal Webcams
___________________________________________________

Advisories and discussions:
For more recent advisories, if available, CLICK HERE.
For more recent discussions, if available, CLICK HERE.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT…
…THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR…
…CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS
SYSTEM…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT…
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
…39 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH…98 KM/H HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED AT YARMOUNTH NOVA SCOTIA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB…29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NOVA
SCOTIA…SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK…AND PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION…WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING
WARNINGS…CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT:
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT
WOCN41 CWHX.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is
now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the
north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Hurricane Amanda, in the eastern Pacific, is this season’s first hurricane for the E-PAC and the Atlantic regions. Intensified quickly to Category 4, no risk to landfall expected. More info available at EWR’s 2014 Hurricane page.

Update:2013-05-17: Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific… and Alvin poops to a trough. Alvin! ALVIN! (with apologies to The Chipmunks…)

Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific, east of Central America and well offshore, is this season’s first named storm. With a track to the northwest, little impact is expected. As of this morning windspeeds are approximately 50mph and are expected to strengthen to Category 1 hurricane strength over the next day or so.

For more info about current hurricane activity follow Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity 2013.

[Ed. Note: Cross posted from WUWT. This is a large, valuable, albeit technical discussion about the validity of the Global Warming meme so righteously promoted by mainstream media, and variety of catastrophic climate scientists advocates. The comment stream is also worthwhile for the links and discussions within. ]

A Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature” – “Extreme Weather” Update

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts”

Recently there have been increased efforts to link “Climate Change” and “Extreme Weather” e.g., NOAA links extreme weather to climate change CBS – July 10, 2012, “NASA scientist links climate change, extreme weather” CNN – August 6, 2012 and Get used to ‘extreme’ weather, it’s the new normal The Guardian – September 19, 2012.  Per the Guardian article, “Scientists have been warning us for years that a warmer planet would lead to more extreme weather, and now it’s arrived”. These “Extreme Weather” efforts have shifted into high gear with Sandy. Yesterday United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that “one of the lessons from Superstorm Sandy is the need for global action to deal with future climate shocks.” “He told the U.N. General Assembly on Friday that it is difficult to attribute any single storm to climate change, but the world already knows that “extreme weather due to climate change is the new normal.” U.N. leader: Sandy a lesson in climate change CBS – November 9, 2012

All of these claims and “extreme weather” rhetoric seems to be predicated on the assumption that “Earth’s Temperature” has increased recently, thus causing “extreme weather” to arrive and become the “new normal”. However, does the observational data support this assumption? Let’s take a look…

 

Global Surface Temperatures:

Generally, when referring to Earth’s “climate” warming, proponents of the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) narrative refer to Earth’s Surface Temperature, e.g. “Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels.” NASA Earth Observatory

As such, here’s NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly – 1996 to Present:

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) – Click the pic to view at source

Looking across the last 16 years, Global Surface Temperature do not appear to have increased much at all.

For a longer term view, UK Met Office’s – Hadley Center – Climate Research Unit (CRU) Annual Global Average Land Temperature Anomaly – 1850 to 2011;

Met Office – Hadley Center – Click the pic to view at source

and the UK Met Office – Hadley Center – Climate Research Unit (CRU) Monthly Global Average Land Temperature – 1850 to 2011

Met Office – Hadley Center – Click the pic to view at source

Unless the arrival of “extreme weather” occurred in 1997-1998 with the well documented “very strong El Niño”, and the media is just realizing it, there does not seem to be a basis for the “extreme weather” claims in Earth’s recent Land and Surface Temperature record. There does not appear to be much recent change, and if anything the trend is down in the last few years. However, the surface temperature record is burdened with issues of questionable siting, changes in siting, changes in equipment, changes in the number of measurement locations, modeling to fill in gaps in measurement locations, corrections to account for missing, erroneous or biased measurements, and the urban heat island effect. Thus to see the big picture on the temperature “Earth’s Temperature”, it also helps to look up.

Atmospheric Temperatures:

Since 1979 Earth’s “temperature” has also been measured via satellite. “The temperature measurements from space are verified by two direct and independent methods. The first involves actual in-situ measurements of the lower atmosphere made by balloon-borne observations around the world. The second uses intercalibration and comparison among identical experiments on different orbiting platforms. The result is that the satellite temperature measurements are accurate to within three one-hundredths of a degree Centigrade (0.03 C) when compared to ground-launched balloons taking measurements of the same region of the atmosphere at the same time.” NASA

Here is RSS Global Temperature Lower Troposphere (TLT) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly- 1979 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

and this is the University of Alabama – Hunstville (UAH) Global Lower Atmosphere Temperature Anomalies – 1979 to Present:

University of Alabama – Huntsville (UAH) – Dr. Roy Spencer – Click the pic to view at source

Note: Per John Christy, RSS and UAH anomalies are not comparable because they use different base periods, i.e., “RSS only uses 1979-1998 (20 years) while UAH uses the WMO standard of 1981-2010.”

The September UAH Lower Atmosphere Temperature Anomaly was .33 degrees C above the 30 year average and RSS Global Global Lower Troposphere shows a .133  degrees C increase per decade. “Earth’s Temperature” varies naturally by numerous degrees and has been significantly warmer than it is today:

NOAA – National Climate Data Center – Click the pic to view at source

Are we to believe that 3 or 4 tenths of a degree C warming over the last 30 years has brought us to the precipice of “extreme weather”? Seems implausible. Maybe there are significant regional variations that portended the arrival of “extreme weather”?

Looking at the RSS Northern Hemisphere Temperature Lower Troposphere (TLT) Brightness Temperature Anomaly;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

and RSS Southern Hemisphere Temperature Lower Troposphere (TLT) Brightness Temperature Anomaly;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

neither seem indicative of warming that would have caused “extreme weather” to arrive.

Furthermore, RSS Southern Polar Temperature Lower Troposphere (TLT) Brightness Temperature Anomaly;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

is currently negative and shows a .013 K/C per decade decrease. Should we assume that Antarctica is experiencing less “extreme weather” at the moment?…

To this point we’ve only addressed the Lower Troposphere Temperatures, but one never knows where this “extreme weather” might be coming from, the following Temperature Anomaly plots from RSS will increase in altitude as is illustrated here:

Here is RSS Temperature Middle Troposphere (TMT)- Brightness Temperature Anomaly- 1979 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

According to Remote Sensing Systems, “For Channel (TLT) (Lower Troposphere) and Channel (TMT) (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest.” RSS

Middle Tropospheric temperatures appear to show slow warming overlaid with the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, including several comparatively large El Niño events. Middle Tropospheric temperatures appear to have flattened since the large El Niño in 1998 and offer no indication of a recent change in Earth’s Temperature that could cause “extreme weather” to become the “new normal.

Moving higher in the atmosphere, RSS Temperature Troposphere / Stratosphere (TTS) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly- 1987 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

has been flat since 1987, with a trend of just -.008 K/C per decade. Perhaps this is the “new normal”?…

The 1997-98 and 2009 – 10 El Niño events are still readily apparent in the Troposphere / Stratosphere plot above, as is a spike from the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Note that the effect of Mt. Pinatubo is the opposite in the Lower and Middle Troposphere versus the Troposphere / Stratosphere (TTS), i.e. “Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere; the gases convert into submicron particles (aerosol) with an e-folding time scale of about 1 year. The climate response to large eruptions (in historical times) lasts for several (2-3) years. The aerosol cloud causes cooling at the Earth’s surface, warming in stratosphere.”
Ellen Thomas, PHD Wesleyan University

It is interesting that, incorporating the impact of three significant surface driven warming events, Troposphere / Stratosphere Temperatures (TTS) have been quite stable, however there is a bit of regional variation here, e.g.:

RSS Northern Hemisphere Temperature Troposphere / Stratosphere (TTS) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly- 1987 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

has been increasing by .044 K/C per decade, whereas the RSS Southern Hemisphere Temperature Troposphere / Stratosphere (TTS) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly- 1987 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

has been decreasing by -.061 K/C per decade. However, Southern Hemisphere Troposphere / Stratosphere Temperature does show a significant increase in 2012, perhaps it is this increase that caused “extreme weather” to arrive? Or maybe not…

Moving higher still in the atmosphere, the RSS Temperature Lower Stratosphere (TLS) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly – 1979 to Present;

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source

“is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991).” RSS

The eruptions of El Chichon and Mt Pinatubo are readily apparent in the Apparent Atmospheric Transmission of Solar Radiation at Mauna Loa, Hawaii:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) – Click the pic to view at source

“The stratosphere” … “in contrast to the troposphere, is heated, as the result of near infrared absorption of solar energy at the top of the aerosol cloud, and increased infra-red absorption of long-wave radiation from the Earth’s surface.”

“The stratospheric warming in the region of the stratospheric cloud increases the latitudinal temperature gradient after an eruption at low latitudes, disturbing the stratospheric-troposphere circulation, increasing the difference in height of the troposphere between high and low latitudes, and increasing the strength of the jet stream (polar vortex, especially in the northern hemisphere). This leads to warming during the northern hemisphere winter following a tropical eruption, and this warming effect tends to be larger than the cooling effect described above.” Ellen Thomas, PHD Wesleyan University

The Lower Stratosphere experienced “dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991).” RSS “The long-term, global-mean cooling of the lower stratosphere stems from two downward steps in temperature, both of which are coincident with the cessation of transient warming after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo.” … “Here we provide observational analyses that yield new insight into three key aspects of recent stratospheric climate change. First, we provide evidence that the unusual step-like behavior of global-mean stratospheric temperatures is dependent not only upon the trend but also on the temporal variability in global-mean ozone immediately following volcanic eruptions. Second, we argue that the warming/cooling pattern in global-mean temperatures following major volcanic eruptions is consistent with the competing radiative and chemical effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric temperature and ozone. Third, we reveal the contrasting latitudinal structures of recent stratospheric temperature and ozone trends are consistent with large-scale increases in the stratospheric overturning Brewer-Dobson circulation” David W. J. Thompson Colorado State University

Above the Stratosphere we have the Mesosphere and Thermosphere, neither of which have I identified current temperature time series for, but of note is that on “July 15, 2010″ “A Puzzling Collapse of Earth’s Upper Atmosphere” occurred when “high above Earth’s surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called “the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.”

“This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years,” says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). “It’s a Space Age record.”

The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009—a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.

“Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert.

The thermosphere ranges in altitude from 90 km to 600+ km. It is a realm of meteors, auroras and satellites, which skim through the thermosphere as they circle Earth. It is also where solar radiation makes first contact with our planet. The thermosphere intercepts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photons from the sun before they can reach the ground. When solar activity is high, solar EUV warms the thermosphere, causing it to puff up like a marshmallow held over a camp fire. (This heating can raise temperatures as high as 1400 K—hence the name thermosphere.) When solar activity is low, the opposite happens.” NASA

In summary, Earth’s Lower and Middle Troposphere appear to have warmed slowly, overlaid with the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, including four comparatively large El Niño events, and tempered by the cooling effects of the eruption of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Lower and Middle Tropospheric temperatures appear to have flattened since the large El Niño in 1998 and offer no indication of changes that could be causing “extreme weather”. Tropospheric / Stratospheric temperatures appear to have been influenced by at least three significant surface driven warming events, the 1997-98 El Niño, and the eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1991, but have maintained a stable overall trajectory. Stratospheric temperatures appear to have experienced two “dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991).”, and “unusual step-like behavior of global-mean stratospheric temperatures” which has resulted in a significant stratospheric cooling during the last 30 years. Lastly, “during deep solar minimum of 2008-2009″ “the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years” occurred and “The magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.” Unless someone can demonstrate a causative relationship between “Climate Change”, the collapse of the thermosphere and “Extreme Weather”, there does not seem to be any support with the atmospheric temperature records for “extreme weather” arrival and “new normal” rhetoric.

Ocean Temperatures:

“The oceans can hold much more heat than the atmosphere. Just the top 3.2 metres of ocean holds as much heat as all the world’s air.” Commonwealth of Australia – Bureau of Meteorology

As such, changes in Ocean Heat Content are important in understanding “Earth’s Temperature”. Here is NOAA’s NODC Global Ocean Heat Content from 0-700 Meters – 1955 to Present;

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) – Click the pic to view at source

and here is the same from Ole Humlum’s valuable climate data site Climate4you.com, NODC Global Ocean Heat Content – 0-700 Meters – 1979 to Present:

climate4you.com – Ole Humlum – Professor, University of Oslo Department of Geosciences – Click the pic to view at source

It seems apparent from the plots above that Global Ocean Heat has increased over the last several decades, however Global Ocean Heat does not appear to show a recent increase that could lead to “extreme weather”. Furthermore, in his recent article Bob Tisdale demonstrated that “sea surface temperatures for Sandy’s path haven’t warmed in 70+ years” WUWT.

Sea Level:

“Global sea level is currently rising as a result of both ocean thermal expansion and glacier melt, with each accounting for about half of the observed sea level rise, and each caused by recent increases in global mean temperature. For the period 1961-2003, the observed sea level rise due to thermal expansion was 0.42 millimeters per year and 0.69 millimeters per year due to total glacier melt (small glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets) (IPCC 2007). Between 1993 and 2003, the contribution to sea level rise increased for both sources to 1.60 millimeters per year and 1.19 millimeters per year respectively (IPCC 2007).” Source NSIDC

Global Mean Sea Level Change – 1993 to Present:

climate4you.com – Ole Humlum – Professor, University of Oslo Department of Geosciences – Click the pic to view at source

Global Mean Sea Level Change Map with a “Correction” of 0.3 mm/year added May, 5th 2011, due to a “Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA)” – 1993 to Present:

University of Colorado at Boulder – Click the pic to view at source

It seems doubtful that “extreme weather” arrived because of the 5.5 Centimeter increase in Sea Level since 1993. Sandy’s storm surge topped “out at 14 feet (4.3 meters)” Huffington Post, would Sandy have been less extreme if the surge had only been 4.245 meters?…

Snow and Ice:

A proxy often cited when measuring “Earth’s Temperature” is amount of Snow and Ice on Earth. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), “The vast majority, almost 90 percent, of Earth’s ice mass is in Antarctica, while the Greenland ice cap contains 10 percent of the total global ice mass.” Source USGA

However, there is currently no generally accepted measure of ice volume, as Cryosat is still in validation and the accuracy of measurements from Grace are still being challenged. Sea Ice Area and Extent are cited as proxies for “Earth’s Temperature”, however there is significant evidence that the primary influences on Sea Ice Area and Extent are in fact wind and Atmospheric Oscillations. With this said, here are

Global, Arctic & Antarctic Sea Ice Area from 1979 to Present;

climate4you.com – Ole Humlum – Professor, University of Oslo Department of Geosciences – Click the pic to view at source

Global Sea Ice Area Anomaly – 1979 to Present:

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly, 1979 to Present;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly, 1979 to Present;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

Arctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – click to view at source

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or Greater

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source

There appears to have been a negative trend in Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area and Extent and a positive trend in Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area and Extent, thus the resultant Global Sea Ice Area trend appears to be slightly negative.

In terms of land based data, here is 20 Year Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover with 1995 – 2009 Climatology from NCEP/NCAR;

Florida State University – Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science – Click the pic to view at source

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies 1966 – Present from NCEP/NCAR;

Florida State University – Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science – Click the pic to view at source

Northern Hemisphere Winter Snow Extent – 1967 to Present from Rutgers University;

Rutgers University – Global Snow Lab (GSL) – Click the pic to view at source

Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Extent – 1967 to Present:

 alt=Rutgers University – Global Snow Lab (GSL) – Click the pic to view at source

Northern Hemisphere Fall Snow Extent – 1967 to Present:

Rutgers University – Global Snow Lab (GSL) – Click the pic to view at source

While none of the Snow plots offers a global perspective, when looking at the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to have been a slight increase in Snowcover and Winter Snow Extent, a decrease in Spring Snow Extent and no change in Fall Snow Extent over the historical record.

Based on the limited Global Ice and Snow measurements available, and noting the questionable value of Sea Ice Area and Extent as a proxy for temperature, not much inference can currently be drawn from Earth’s Ice and Snow measurements. However, there does not appear to be any evidence of change in Earth’s Ice and Snow measurements indicative of the arrival of “Extreme Weather”.

Conclusion:

There is no evidence of a recent increase in “Earth’s Temperature” due to “Climate Change,” which could have caused “Extreme Weather” to arrive and become the “new normal”. Claims and rhetoric that recent “Extreme Weather” is caused by or associated with “Climate Change” are not supported by the observational data.

Additional information on “Earth’s Temperature” can be found in the WUWT Reference Pages, including the Global Temperature Page and Global Climatic History Page

Please note that WUWT cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data/graphics within this article, nor influence the format or form of any of the graphics, as they are all linked from third party sources and WUWT is simply an aggregator. You can view each graphic at its source by simply clicking on it.

2012-10-17: We have discontinued updates of tropical Storm Paul, now degraded to a tropical depression.

2012-10-16: Update: Hurricane Paul has slowed and weakened back to tropical storm intensity as it reached the coast.

2012-10-16: Hurricane Paul has dropped back in intensity to a category 2 hurricane, and is moving quickly toward Baja. Wind shear aloft is expected to reduce its intensity as it gets to Baja, but still remain as a hurricane. The expected track is a turn to the north, then northwest once it reaches the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: Update: Hurricane Paul, in the eastern Pacific, has intensified and reached major hurricane strength (category 3). Tracking modeling has placed the path of the hurricane further inland along the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: TS Paul in the eastern Pacific, west of Baja Califorina has reached hurricane strength (category 1) and continues to strengthen. It’s expected to begin to side-swipe Baja beginning Tues night, but storm surge will be felt well before then. Developing.

[For general monitoring of the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season, follow our post at Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane activity 2012)]

Forecast track for Hurricane Paul

GOES West Satellite.- Vissible image Hurricane Paul – Image is linked to loop

GOES West satellite – AVN presentation, Hurricane Paul. Image is linked to loop.

WTPZ31 KNHC 172036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

…PAUL DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.

SURF…SWELLS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE COAST OF SINALOA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

WTPZ41 KNHC 172036
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS…
WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION…THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS…IT IS ESTIMATED THAT
PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR…PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36
HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10…AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z…DISSIPATED

[Starting this hurricane season, EWR will post specific named storms as their own post, rather than be embedded in the general regional overview. Information and graphics will update as before, and contain the same information.
Please see our Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic Hurricane page for a continuously updating view of general tropical storm activity in the North American Hurricane belt.]

[The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Category Scale.]
_______________________

Tropical Storm Debby

2012-06-26: A tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

2012-06-26: After deluging Florida for 3 days Debby is downgraded to a tropical depression as it makes its way into the Atlantic.

GOES East AVN Image of Debby. Click on image for loop.

WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H 27/1800Z 30.0N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 32.0N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 35.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 45.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

What is the Saffir-Simpson Scale of hurricane categories?

Hurricane season is normally considered to be June 1 to November 30. The US National Hurricane center will pick up advisories at the onset of the 2013 season. Note – the 2012 season got an early start last year (and caught us a little flat-footed here at EWR), with two named storms early in both the western Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. We’ll see what 2013 brings…!

Some changes in our monitoring- in previous years we’ve made good use of the graphical abilities of the GRE visiual modelling system to pruduce unique composite storm views, but we’ve discontinued the use of this software for the time-being due to cost issues relative to its value to us. We are looking at alternatives to provide more information easily for tropical storms and hurricanes.

Continuing this hurricane season, EWR will post specific named storms with a threat of landfall as their own post on the EWR Blog (select “home” link), rather than be embedded in this general regional overview. Information and graphics will update as before, and contain much more information. Follow the named-storm links below as available.
________________________________

EWR currently monitoring: none.

________________________________

2013-06-01:

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS (Atlantic):

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA         AN- DREE UH      LORENZO         LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY          BAIR- REE        MELISSA         MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL        SHAHN TAHL-      NESTOR          NES- TOR
DORIAN         DOR- EE AN       OLGA            OAL- GUH
ERIN           AIR- RIN         PABLO           PAHB- LO
FERNAND        FAIR NAHN-       REBEKAH         REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE      GA BREE ELL-     SEBASTIEN       SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO       OOM BAIR- TOH    TANYA           TAHN- YUH
INGRID         ING- GRID        VAN             VAN
JERRY          JEHR- EE         WENDY           WEN- DEE
KAREN          KAIR- REN

Update-2 2013-05-30: Tropical depression Barbara has become disorganized and is dissipating.

Update 2013-05-30: Hurricane Barbara has collapsed over land and is now a tropical depression. However, the potential exists for it to reform as a cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges from the land.

2013-05-29: Tropical Storm Barbara, in the eastern Pacific, became Hurricane Barbara today. Follow the link for more information.

2013-05-17: Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific… and Alvin poops to a trough. Alvin! ALVIN! (with apologies to The Chipmunks…)

2013-05-16: Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific, east of Central America and well offshore, is this season’s first named storm. With a track to the northwest, there is little impact expected. As of this morning windspeeds are approximately 50mph and are expected to strengthen to Category 1 hurricane strength over the next day or so.
________________________________
The NOAA images below are updated directly from the NOAA sites. Each image links either to the source page or to a larger version of the image.

Western Atlantic:

The images above contains active information elements which can be accessed at the NHC site. Click on the image to go there or to the National Hurricane Center.
___________________________________

Eastern Pacific:

(Click on the graphic to go to the NOAA eastern Pacific site)

(Click on the graphic to go to the NOAA eastern Pacific site)

The images above contains active information elements which can be accessed at the NHC site. Click on the image to go there or to the National Hurricane Center.

___________________________________________

Atlantic and Eastern Pacific 2013 UPDATE ARCHIVE

For named storms and info EWR may have retained about them, see the Tropicals category link for storms from 2012 and earlier. For 2013, a specific category for Hurricanes has been added.

Atlantic and Eastern Pacific 2012 UPDATE ARCHIVE

From NOAA, the 2012 hurricane season:

“Based on the combined number, intensity, and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes, NOAA classifies the season as above-normal. 2012 was an active year, but not exceptionally so as there were 10 busier years in the last three decades.

An interesting aspect of the season was its early start, with two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing in May before the season officially began. Also, this is the seventh consecutive year that no major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have hit the United States. The only major hurricane this season was Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 storm that stayed over the open Atlantic.”

“Several storms this year were short in duration, weak in intensity, and went largely unnoticed by the general public because they stayed out over the Atlantic. A persistent jet stream pattern over the eastern portion of the nation helped steer many of this season’s storms away from the United States. The number of named storms and hurricanes was higher than predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook, in large part because El Niño – which likely would have suppressed overall storm activity – never materialized as predicted by many climate models.”

“Hurricane forecasters remind us that a well-established climate pattern puts us in an ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Since that time, more than 70 percent of seasons have been above normal, including 2012. Historically, Atlantic high-activity eras have lasted 25 to 40 years, with the previous one occurring from the mid-1930s until 1970. Several inter-related atmospheric and oceanic factors contribute to these high activity years, including warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an enhanced West African monsoon, and reduced vertical wind shear.” NOAA

2012-10-28: Sandy is expected to continue to hover around the bottom end of the category one boundary over the next two days until it reaches landfall, projected to be over the Delmarva Peninsula, just north of Chesapeake. The hurricane strength wind radius remains very large, +/-165km from the storm cemtre. Potential still exists for transformation to a tropical cyclone, but the forecast expectation is for transformation to an extra-tropical cyclone within 48 hours, with rapid weakening over landfall. This weakening was beginning to be evident in some of the longer range forecast models last night. It remains important to note, however, while overall intensity may fall, the extremely large area of the storm, coupled with a strong low pressure trough over the US northwest and south central and eastern Canada, and a blocking high over extreme eastern Canada may increase the storm duration over the lower Great Lakes Basin and St. Lawrence Valley. This may result in greater than average rainfall over the duration of the storm. The pressure gradient of Sandy remains deep, 960 mb (28.35 in), which will hold wind speeds high until significant pressure infill occurs.

2012-10-27: As expected Sandy has decreased enough in intensity to drop out of hurricane status, but as it does so it has also expanded in size. While it travels northward, it is expected to interact with deep low pressure trough and re-intensify within 48 hours and its centre to be inland within 72 hours as a extra-tropical cyclone. Its landfall entry point is suggested to be slightly farther south, but no enough to mitigate its overall effect as projected.

2012-10-26: Hurricane Sandy is now a category one hurricane. Anticipated weakening at this point is occuring, but is expected to remain at the marginal category 1 level for the next couple of days. Pressure gradient and wind field have broadened. Some re-intensification is expected.

2012-10-25: Hurricane Sandy is now a category 2 storm. Please the named link for more details on Sandy.

2012-10-24: We got caught napping on Hurricane Sandy. Sandy is presently a category one hurricane. Interests along the Atlantic Seaboard need to keep a close watch on this one. Guidance doesn’t rule out venturing into the Great Lakes basin a la Hazel in ’54.

2012-10-15: TS Paul in the eastern Pacific, west of Baja Califorina, has reached hurricane strength. It’s expected to begin to side-swipe Baja beginning Tues night, but storm surge will be felt well before then. Developing.

2012-10-14: Storm tracking for Bermuda is now setting Tropical Storm Rafael east of Bermuda. Storm surge should still be a factor but rain impact likely will be lessened if the storm stays true to course. High seas and heavy rains are still forecast for the Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques. Rafael is projected by the NHC to reach hurricane status tomorrow.

2012-10-13: Tropical Storm Rafael pounded portions of Trinidad and Tobago and the lower Carribean and continues to cause strong seas and rain as it moves northward along the the inside of Leeward Islands. Bermuda places Rafael as passing over The Virgin Islands Sunday morning, and Bermuda Tuesday night, and is holding it as a tropical storm (SS cat 0)

2012-10-27: As expected Sandy has decreased enough in intensity to drop out of hurricane status, but as it does so it has also expanded in size. While it travels northward, it is expected to interact with deep low pressure trough and re-intensify within 48 hours and its centre to be inland within 72 hours as a extra-tropical cyclone. Its landfall entry point is suggested to be slightly farther south, but not enough to mitigate its overall effect as projected.

2012-10-26 UPDATE: – Hurricane Sandy is a category 1 hurricane. Anticipated weakening at this point is expected to occur over the next 36 hours, lowering the storm to a tropical storm intensity. Re-intensification and transition to an extra-tropical cyclone could occur in 3-4 days. Pressure gradient and wind field have broadened. Model ensemble integration points to landfall of the storm mass just north of Chesapeake. Inland tracking remains diffuse, but current expectations are that the Great Lakes basin will still experience strong winds and heavy rain.

2012-10-25 – Hurricane Sandy is now a category 2 hurricane. Guidance estimates are placing a bit further offshore than originally thought, although the upper Bahamas will take a direct hit and the lower islands will have at least strong tropical storm effect. Guidance models still place the Chesapeake area of the eastern seaboard at risk of landfall and there is considerable uncertainty about its inland track thereafter.

2012-10-24 – We got caught napping on Hurricane Sandy. Sandy is presently a category one hurricane. Interests along the Atlantic Seaboard need to keep a close watch on this one. Guidance doesn’t rule out venturing into the Great Lakes basin a la Hazel in ’54. Currently forming up just north of Jamaica, its projected path runs across Cuba and straight up the Bahamas chain.

2012-09-07: Tropical Storm(Hurricane) Leslie continues its northward path toward Bermuda and possibly the Canadian Maritimes.

2012-08-28: Isaac has attained weak Category 1 status with winds between 74-80mph. Its expected to decrease in strength upon reaching landfall. At 5:30 pm EDT, the eye is approx 87 mi from New Orleans and west of the city. Apparent track puts the eye passing between Houma and New Orleans, on track for Baton Rouge.

2012-08-25: Tropical Storm Joyce is disorganizing and collapsing – no further advisories to be issued. Tropical Storm Isaac continues its path northwesterly and is expected to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane once it moves into open water beyond Cuba. Sustained winds are now approximately 60mph; cat 1 hurricane rating begins at 74 mph sustained winds.

2012-08-24: Tropical Storm Joyce fails to maintain organization and is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Tropical Storm Isaac remains loosely organized, but still a strong storm. Path prediction continues to be uncertain due to its weak organization.

2012-08-23: Tropical Storm Joyce firms up and gets on the westward train toward the Carribean, or not. Current track puts it up Bermuda way, but it also appears to be losing organization.

2012-08-21: Tropical Depression #9 has advanced to the junior leagues and is now Tropical Storm Isaac. Path projection puts it over the northern Windward and Leeward Islands by Wednesday afternoon.

2012-08-18: Tropical Storm Helene dissipates to a diffuse post-tropical depression. Hurricane Gordon, continues to head toward the Azores and Canary Islands. Gordon remains well organised but appears to have weakened a little. Gordon is currently a category 2 storm.

2012-08-18: Tropical Storm Helene bears down again on the Mexican coast. Concurrently, TS Gordon, out in the Atlantic, is now Hurricane Gordon, heading northeastward toward the Azores and Canary Islands.

2012-08-10: Tropical Storm Ernesto dissipates. Tropical Storm Gilma in the eastern Pacific is moving westward, dissipating and is not a threat to land. Tropical Depression Seven bears watching. Tropical storm warnings are being posted for the lesser Antilles.

2012-08-07: A little slow out of the gate on Ernesto since its been such a slow season. Tropical Storm Ernesto is ramping up to be a category 1 to category 2 hurricane as it bears down on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Storm details can be found at Tropical Storm Ernesto

2012-06-26: After deluging large parts of Florida for 3 days, Tropical Storm Debby downgrades to a tropical depression on its way into the Atlantic..

2012-06-23: A tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

Atlantic and Eastern Pacific 2011 UPDATE ARCHIVE

2011-10-01 Ophelia (west) and Phillipe (east) Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm images are GOES infared view.

Hurricane Ophelia

WTNT31 KNHC 010853

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

…MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSES DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY 41049…

EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…27.7N 63.1W

ABOUT 335 MI…535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. OPHELIA

IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BRINGING THE CORE

OF OPHELIA EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TO

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES…335 KM. THE EYE OF OPHELIA RECENTLY PASSED DIRECTLY OVER

NOAA BUOY 41049…AND THE BUOY REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND

OF 96 MPH…155 KM/H…WITH A PEAK GUST TO 116 MPH…187 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES…BASED ON

REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS

AFTERNOON.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF

CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA. NOAA BUOY

41049 RECENTLY REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS OF MORE THAN 40 FEET.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED

ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.

WTNT41 KNHC 010855

TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN

INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO ABOUT 11

DEGREES CELSIUS. THE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY

41049 AROUND 08Z…AND THE BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND

OF 84 KT WITH A GUST OF 101 KT AT A HEIGHT OF 5 METERS…AND A

PRESSURE OF 951.9 MB. BASED ON THE BUOY PRESSURE AND SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB…THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 105 KT. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED

SLIGHTLY BASED ON WINDS OBTAINED FROM A 01/0106Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 360/15 KT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…AND THEN

GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE HURRICANE

COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW

AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.

EAST COAST. BY 48 HOURS…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY

EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS A BAND OF FAST-MOVING WESTERLIES NORTH OF 45N

LATITUDE. BY THAT TIME…OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS

COLDER THAN 20C AND ALSO BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A STRONG FRONTAL

SYSTEM…WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL

POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE

TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

OPHELIA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE

REMAINS OVER SSTS NEAR 28C AND IN A VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF

LESS THAN 5 KT. BY 24 HOURS…HOWEVER…INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY

WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL

THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT…OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER MUCH

COLDER WATER AND ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30

KT…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND ALSO TRANSITION

INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS MODEL…ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 27.7N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 01/1800Z 30.4N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 02/0600Z 34.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

36H 02/1800Z 40.1N 60.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 03/0600Z 44.8N 55.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 04/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 05/0600Z…ABSORBED

Tropical Storm Philippe

WTNT32 KNHC 010852

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011

500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

…PHILIPPE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…24.3N 47.4W

ABOUT 1190 MI…1920 KM ESE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST. PHILIPPE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE

WTNT42 KNHC 010851

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011

500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC

ENVIRONMENT…THE STORM IS NOT WEAKENING. IN FACT…DEEP CONVECTION

HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS

NOW AS COLD AS -85C. A 0501 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE

CONVECTION…AND THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH

HEIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND

SAB…SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. HOWEVER…

RECENT ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE A

LITTLE STRONGER.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.

PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE

NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH…THE

SAME ONE THAT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF OPHELIA…ERODES THE

RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AT THE END OF

THE PERIOD…IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE…AND IS ABOUT

MIDWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF MODEL.

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT…ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF

OPHELIA…IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PHILIPPE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS

THE SHEAR VECTOR TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 40

KT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING. IF PHILIPPE IS ABLE TO

SURVIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS…IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO

RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER

SHEAR. BY DAY 5…HOWEVER…A BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE

LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 24.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 02/0600Z 25.7N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 03/0600Z 26.4N 54.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 04/0600Z 26.6N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 05/0600Z 28.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

120H 06/0600Z 32.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

2011-09-08 Hurricane Katia, centre, TS Nate, lower left, TS Maria lower right. Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm images are GOES infared view. Image (c)EWR

Update 2011-09-08: Hurricane Katia continues to wobble its way up-ocean between Bermuda and the eastern seaboard and remains a strong cyclone. Forecast period expectations bring it into the vicinity of the northern United Kingdom. Tropical depression 14 is now Tropical Storm Maria, expected to graze the northern Leewards. Maria remains somewhat disorganized and is not expected to strengthen much over the next 72 hours. Tropical Storm Nate has emerged from depression in the Bay of Campeche and appears to be becoming better organized, but is static and difficult to predict for track and intensity at the moment. Discussions for Katia, Maria and Nate follow below.

Update 2011-09-07: Hurricane Katia has diminished to a category 1 storm as it moves up the Atlantic between Bermuda and the eastern seaboard. Conditions favour Katia to become a strong post-tropical cyclone as it moves north and east into the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14, currently off the coast of Africa is near tropical storm strength but is not organizing as expected and has been held off being named for the moment. Present forecasts for TD14 do not indicate strengthening over the next 72 hours.

2011-09-06 Hurricane Katia lower right. Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm images are GOES visible view. Image (c)EWR

Hurricane Katia 2011-09-06 Saffir-Simpson Category 3 (GOES EAST visible). Image (c)EWR.

Update 2011-09-05: Tropical Depression Lee is slowly becoming a remnant storm, after dropping lots of water on the gulf states. Hurricane Katia continues to wobble its way northwestward, alternately strengthening and weakening on its route.

Update 2011-08-30: Tropical Storm Katia, forming in the Eastern Atlantic, is catching attention in the US for its potential to become the next major hurricane. Current tracks aand models have it swinging into the Atlantic between Florida and Bermuda. Model category forecasts are also quite divergent at the moment, ranging from cat 2 to cat 5.

Update 2011-09-03: Hurricane Katia continues to have difficulty holding together as a hurricane and is presently a very weak category 1 storm. Tropical Storm Lee will move ashore later today and track to the northeast. Its is expected to become extra-tropical upon impact with a cold front moving down out of the northwest.

Update 2011-08-29: Tropical Storm Jose races northward and is expected to move into cooler waters, become post-tropical in 12 hours, dissipate in 24.

Update 2011-08-28: Tropical Storm Jose, forms off south of Bermuda, heads toward Bermuda.

Update 2011-08-28: Since arriving over land Irene, has dropped to tropical storm status, but still remains a large and powerful storm, and is expected to remain largely so as it moves NNE across New England, the Eastern Townships of Quebec, New Brunswick, Labrador and finally out to sea again.

Hurricane Irene 2011-08-28: 07:35 AM EDT: Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm image is GOES visible view wih NWS NEXRAD radar overlaid. Click on image to enlarge to full size.

Hurricane Irene 2011-08-28: 07:35 AM EDT: Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm image is GOES visible view wih NWS NEXRAD radar overlaid. Click on image to enlarge to full size.

Update 2011-08-27: The eye of Hurricane Irene moved inland today. Impact with land and the cooler extra-tropical waters has reduced Irene’s intensity to category 1, but Irene remains a very large and locally dangerous storm. Model track guidance remains mostly consistent with the path following up the US seaboard, across New England and over the Eastern Townships and New Brunswick. By this point, Irene is expected to be a weak category 1 or tropical storm. In either case, Irene will be capable of large amounts of rain and strong winds.

Update 2011-08-26: Preliminary over-flight observations this morning indicate Irene has dropped just below category 3 status. Further analysis suggests that intensification is not likely, but will still make landfall at the Outer Banks at or near category 3 strength in 36 hours. Current tracking places it into New England in 60 hours.

Update 2011-08-25: Hurricane Irene is now a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale (see above). Further strengthening is expected. Irene is considered a large tropical cyclone, with hurricane winds out to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 290 miles.

Update 2011-08-24: Hurricane Irene is expected to reach category 3 later today.

Update 2011-08-23: Hurricane Irene is now category 2. Upper level shear is holding back development some, but it is expected to intensify to category 3 (major hurricane) over the next 36 hours. All models are coming into track agreement (see image below).

Update 2011-08-22: TS Irene has now attained hurricane status. There is an expectation that Iren may become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater).

Update 2011-08-21:. Tropical Storm Irene continues to develop and represents the first major storm of the season with true hurricane potential. Irene is the 9th named storm so far. Current model track estimates suggest hurricane strength along much of the Leewards and warning have been raised. The NHC offical track still puts it at a tropical storm reaching Category 1 by the time it gets to Florida.

Update 2011-08-01: Tropical Storm Eugene evolves offshore of Mexico, and is expected to become a hurricane over the next 36 hours. Its current track leads it northwesterly well offshore.

Update July 30, 2011: Tropical Storm Don has rapidly dissipated to a remnant low upon reaching land.

Update July 28, 2011: Tropical Storm Don is currently in the centre of the Gulf of Mexico and project to remain on course for the Texas gulf coast. Its expected to strengthen to no more than a weak hurricane, if at all.

TS Don 2011-07-28 Lt blue trace is the path of the surveillance aircraft

Update July 23, 2011: Dora now downgraded to tropical storm over the colder waters off Baja California.

Update July 22, 2011: Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacifc gains strength to Category 4 and is expected to begin to swipe coastal Baja California today. It remains far enough offshore to mostly be a threat at surf levels. Dora is expected to begin to decline on Friday as it enters over cooler water in its northwesterly journey.

___________________________________________

Atlantic and Eastern Pacific 2010 UPDATE ARCHIVE

Update 2010-11-06 2 : Tomas has regained category one hurricane strength as it moves into the open Atlantic, but weakening over the next 48 hours is still expected to occur.

Update 2010-11-06: Tomas has diminished to tropical storm status as it moves away from Hispaniola and over the Turks and Caicos. Forecasts over the next 36-48 hours call for Tomas to begin to diminish fairly quickly from 48 hours forward. Track patterns however, favour continued heavy rain for the next 36 hours over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Light blue traces over the centre are reconnaisance aircraft flight paths.

Current tracking for Tomas. GOES view is water vapor. (c)2010 EWR, GRS 2010/11/06 11:30UTC

Update 2010-11-05: Hurricane Tomas has regained category one hurricane strength as it moves over the warm waters at the western edge of Haiti. Furtthern strengthening may occur over the next 24 hours before a decline in strength occurs. While winds are strong, the major threat from Haiti is very heavy rains. The cyclone has gained some orgaization this morning, and moiture content is high as evidenced from the 5AM GOES look this morning (below).

Update 2010-11-04: Tropical Storm Tomas is expected to strengthen to category one hurricane strength over the next 24 hours. The hurricane centre is expected to pass over western Haiti tonight. The major threat is expected to be heavy rains.

Update 2010-11-03: Tropical Storm Tomas has diminished to a tropical depression as of this morning. The extent of the decline is not yet understood, and forecast models still call for it to strengthen and turn to the north by the weekend. Heavy rains are still forecast for Hispaniola and Jamaica.

Update 2010-11-02: Hurricane Tomas continues its march westward as a leisurely tropical storm, but also continues to show increased organization. In the next 48 hours, conditions will likely favour strengthening and a turn to the north. Track models continue to put Tomas over Haiti by the weekend as a major hurricane. More details below.

Update 2010-11-01: Hurricane Tomas, currently downgraded to tropical storm status continues its westerly move. Strong shear has kept the low pressure centre decoupled from the rain core. This is not expected to change for 24-48 hours, at which time, shear is expected to weaken and Tomas is expected to turn toward the north and strengthen.

Update 2010-10-31: Hurricane Tomas, now category two, continues to move westerly away from the Windward Islands. As the storm moves westerly its expected to strengthen to a major hurricane (SS category 3) by the tiime it moves south of Hispaniola, where it is then expected to turn northward from its westerly track.

Update 2010-10-30: Hurricane Shary is beginning to wane as it moves northward. Rapidly building Hurricane Tomas, category one at present, threatens the Windward Islands, especially St. Lucia. As the storm moves wesrterly its expected to strengthen to a major hurricane (SS category 3) by the tiime it moves south of Hispaniola, where it is then expected to turn northward from its westerly track.Update 2010-10-24:: Tropical Storm Richard is expected to attain category one hurricane status for a brief period later this morning as it moves north-westerly out of the Gulf of Honduras and over Belize, Guatelmala and southern Mexico. Once over land, the storm is expected to diminish down to tropical depression levels, but is also expected to strengthen again some when it moves out over the Gulf of Campeche by mid-week.

IR GOES view of Tropical Storm Richard, with National Hurricane Center path projection overlay. Image (c) EWR 2010 & Gibson Ridge.

Update 2010-10-21:: Tropical Depression 19 is poised to become Tropical Storm Richard later today, dropping large amounts of rain over the central western Carribbean.

Update 2010-10-13:: Hurricane Paula has weakened to category 1 and is expected to weaken further shortly.

Update 2 2010-10-12:: Hurricane Paula has intensified to category 2 and is expected to intensify slightly more tonight.

Update 2010-10-12: Transitioning quickly from a tropical depression, Paula was barely a tropical storm before intensifying to a category 1 hurricane. Confined mostly to the northwest Carribean Sea, Paula will likely intensify slightly before beginning to weaken. Belize, Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba mostly affected.

Update 2010-10-06: Sub-tropical Storm Otto has emerged from a sub-tropical depression and is expected to become tropical overnight. Intensification to hurricane status is possible by Thursday night. The GOES Atlantic floater loop images below show an extremely well defined cyclonic circulation.

Update 2010-09-30: Considerable discussion amongst weatherfolks and tropical storm watchers as to whether this current active storm system is a Nicole remnant or not. Some believe the NWS was way premature in declaring Nicole dissipated. My own view is that this system hitting the US eastern seaboard starting yesterday and for the next 24 hours was not part of Nicole. The low pressure centre generating this was clearly evident while Nicole was still south of Cuba two days ago. Cyclonic circulation of Nicole was evident on radar over Cuba while this storm was sweeping into the east coast as a extra-tropical wave. Two distinct meteo events.

What does appear to have happened is that Nicole did lose its tropical characteristic but reformed as a strong extra-tropical system and has been absorbed into the baroclinic low moving up the seaboard. Click on the image below to see the remnants of Nicole and the storm flow into the coast line. The false colour imaging is a Funk model colour scheme (“funktop”), measuring intensity of precipitation. Cyclonic activity is clearly gone; however, there remains considerable moist low pressure upwelling over the Carribean south of Cuba feeding the northward flow. Indications are that the heavy rain pattern over the eastern seaboard will persist for several days.

Update 2 2010-09-29: Bizarre series of prognostications… NHC categorizes tropical depression 16 as Tropical Storm Nicole this morning, only to declare it dissipated this afternoon? Beyond Nicole, the dominant weathermaker is a large non-tropical low situated north of Nicole and hugging the eastern seaboard. This system is expected to drop copious amounts of rain from Florida to New York over the next 24-36 hours.

Update 2010-09-29:Tropical depression 16 became Tropical Storm Nicole this morning. The storm centre is expected to skirt Florida as it moves to the northeast. Its also not expected to strength siginificantly as it merges later with an extra-tropical low further north. EWR is monitoring its passage while in range of Floriada NWS radar (see below).

Update 2010-09-25: Lisa attained hurricane status over the last 24 hours but now shows evidence of weakening and increasing disorganization as it tracks northward over cooler water and into drier air. TS Matthew will continue to drop heavy rain as it moves across into Central America.

Update 2010-09-24: Lisa has regained some strength as expected and is back to tropical storm status. Tropical Storm Matthew has evolved from a depression off the coast of central America and has the potential to develop to hurricane status as it moves toward the Belize coast. Heavy rains are expected from this storm.

Update 2010-09-23: Both Lisa and Georgette are tropical depressions now. Georgette will continue to dissipate, whereas Lisa may fluctuate between a TD and a tropical storm over the next 48 hours.

Update 2010-09-22: Igor has moved beyond hurricane status to extra-tropical storm status and is now dissipating out ove the Labrador Sea. Pace of movement picked up as it made a close approach to Newfoundland, where it caused heavy infrastructure damage in some areas due to flooding and washouts. Tropical Storm Lisa continues to develop in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and Georgette, while currently a tropical depression, is expected to briefly regain tropical storm status over the Gulf of California, then dissipate as it moves up over mainland Mexico.

Update 2010-09-21: Hurricane Igor continues it march up the Atlantic. Igor makes a close approach to Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula as it passes over the Grand Banks, bringing expected high winds and heavy rain to southern NFLD. Still a category 1 hurricane, Igor is not yet prepared to give up its tropical cyclone status, though by later tonight, it is expected to become an intense extra-tropical cyclone. Igor will be a major influence in the North Atlantic for several days yet. Tropical Storm Julia dissipated overnight. Former tropical depression 92L off the horn of Africa, has grown to Tropical Storm Lisa, the twelfth Atlantic tropical storm of the 2010 season. On the Eastern Pacific side, Tropical Storm Georgette has emerged from a depression centered below Baja California. TS Georgette is projected to move up the Baja, over Cabo.

Update 2010-09-20: Hurricane Igor has now moved past Bermuda and the principal rain bands are now clear of the island. Winds will remain at tropical storm intensity buty should begin to diminish there later in the day. Igor has picked up considerable speed as it moves to the northeast, and will make s close pass to Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula today and tomorrow. Igor is still ranked as a category 1 storm but is expected to diminish to tropical storm status within 48 hours. Canada has issued a tropical storm watch for the Avalon region. Julia continues to hold its strength as a tropical storm as it shadows Igor across the Atlantic.

Update 2010-09-19: Hurricane Igor, currently at category 1, has weakened some and is expected to continue to weaken as it moves further north into cooler water. Bermuda is expected to take a direct hit from Igor as a category 1 storm. The large size of Igor means that Bermuda will feel low hurricane and tropical storm force winds for a considerable period. As a post-tropical cyclone, Igor is expected to remain a large and powerful storm. TS Julia is holding steady, but presents no threat to land.

Bermuda Radar

Bermuda AWOS Composite (METAR equaivalent)

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Update 2010-09-18: Karl dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, Julia begins the dissipation process and is now a tropical storm. Igor remains a very large category 2 hurricane, and is expected to strengthen to category 3 through today as it makes for pretty much a direct hit on Bermuda early Monday morning as a category 2 storm with 90 knot sustained winds. BWS is projecting Igor to remain a category 1 hurricane as it swipes past south of the Canadian Maritimes, diminishing to an intense Atlantic cyclone south of Greenland.Update 2010-09-17: Karl makes the majors and becomes a major hurricane at category 3 overnight. Landfall is expected later today ad further strengthening is anticipated prior to landfall. This will be a major storm for Mexico, due to high winds and heavy rain. Funk satellite estimates have consistently shown heavy precipitation from Karl, even as a tropical storm. Igor is holding its strength as a category 3 hurricane, and is expected to have a significant impact on Bermuda early Monday morning as a category 2 storm. Julia strengthened a bit overnight, but is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours.

Update 3 2010-09-16: Karl has been upgraded to a category 2 hurricane.

Update 2 2010-09-16: Karl has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane (>65kt winds) as it moved over into the Gulf of Mexico. the NHC advises there is potential for Karl to become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) by Friday night. This upgrade is earlier than was previously forecast. Karl’s track has been modified to be slightly south of previous forecast. Igor remains strong, and Julia continues to weaken as it moves into cooler northerly waters.

Update 2010-09-16:Igor continues relentlessly and has strengthed some, and has apparently completed an eyewall replacement cycle with indications of deep convection indicating intensification. Track estimates still place it in the vicinity of Bermuda, with a possible trend to a more easterly track. Julia continues to weaken as it moves quickly northward over less warmer water. TS Karl is moving out into the Bay of Campeche and is expected to slow and intensify to a cat 1 hurricane by Friday night. Discussions for each storm follow below.

Update 2010-09-15: The surprise this morning is Hurricane Julia, having made an unexpected leap in intensity to a category 4 hurricane. This makes Igor and Julia only the second pair of coincident cat 4 Atlantic hurricanes in the last 100 years, Ryan Maue reports this morning in a WUWT article.

Update 2 2010-09-14: The depression hanging over the Yucatan basin has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Karl today. Depending on what Karl does over the Yucatan, there is concern that once Karl reaches the Gulf of Mexico strengthening to hurricane status is possible. Over Yucatan, Karl is expected to remain a tropical storm. Details added to the storm discussions below following Julia.

Update 2010-09-14: I’m a little slow out of the gate on Igor, mostly due to being busy with other things and the low impact status of Igor initially.

Currently there are two hurricanes making their way across the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor, a strong category 4 storm, and and newly elevated Hurricane Julia. Julia is not expected at the present time to become much stronger than it currently is, and may wane in the coming days. See discussions below for each storm.

Igor on the other hand is expected to hold strength with minor variance for the next several days. Current track projections create a significant risk for Bermuda, although the National Hurricane Center emphasizes the 5-day-out track forecast has large uncertainties, and Igor could easily place itself several hundred miles from Bermuda. At 32.2N 65W, Bermuda lies just west and slightly south of purple”HWF” legend on the model tracks map.

(image courtesy Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That. Click on image to go to recent WUWT post on Igor)

Update 2010-09-05 Earl Done and gone. fair bit of minor wind damage to Nova Scotia, but rainfall generally light (comparatively).

Update 2010-09-04 Earl moves over the Maritimes as a weak cat 1 hurricane (Canadian status) or a tropical storm ( US NHC status). Hurricane force winds are expected to be maintained at times in the early part of the Maritimes transit. Fiona is downgraded to a tropical depression and has begun the process of disssipation.

Update 2010-09-03 Earl continues its projected path just off the eastern seaboard past Hatteras. Slowly losing organization, it remains a large and dangerous category 2 hurricane. Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to bring storm conditions to Bermuda over the next 36 hours.

Update 2010-09-02 Earl drops to a category 2 as it bumps into Hatteras.

Update 2010-09-01 Earl drops slightly to category 3, presently aiming for a Carolinas/Outer Banks brush, then skidding up the coast to Maine and the Maritimes; Fiona remains a tropical storm , but strengthens a bit.

Update 2010-08-31 Danielle becomes post-tropical and is expected to slowly weaken; Earl moves northwesterly away from Puerto Rico and the Virgins; Fiona remains a weak tropical storm.

Update 2 2010-08-30 Danielle weakens to a tropical storm as it moves into cold northern Atlantic waters; Hurricane Earl increases strength to cat 4 and threatens the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The tropical depression following the path of Earl grows to a named storm, Tropical Storm Fiona. Radar tracking up for Earl at EWR and the hurricane activity thread below.

Update 2010-08-30:Hurricane Danielle is weakening as it moves north in the cold north Atlantic. Hurricane Earl continues to gain strength as it moves into the vicinity of the northern Leewards and towards the Virgin Islands.

Update 2010-08-27:Hurricane Danielle has now reached category 4 and is expected to strengthen still further. Current path predictions place it moving northwards well east of Bermuda. TS Earl is expected to reach hurricane status by Saturday night. Hurricane Frank is expected to begin to diminish as it moves into cooler waters on its northward recurve.

Details for Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and Hurricane Frank in the maps and discussions below.

Update 2 2010-08-25: Tropical Storm Frank has upgrade to a category one hurricane. Its track continues to take it out to sea. Danielle has remained at a renewed cat 1 level, and its future track and intensity remains a subject of some conjecture. The depression off the horn of Africa has rotated its way into Tropical Storm Earl, a full week in advance of expectations. Earl is forecast to become a huricane within two days, and its projected track lies north of the Leeward islands.

Update 2010-08-25: Danielle now back to hurricane status.

Update 2 2010-08-24: HurricaneTropical Storm Danielle falls back to TS status, but is expected to regain its hurricane status in the next day or so,

Update 2010-08-24: Hurricane Danielle continues to strengthen (sustained winds of 100mph/85knots, central pressure 973 mb, 20 mph forward motion) and is now a category 2. Its current position keeps it far out to sea, and its present westerly track is forecast to move northwestward well east of Bermuda.

TS Frank continues to hold a steady course along the coast of Mexico, but is now not expected to strengthen, and tropical storm warnings may be dropped later today.

Another low pressure centre east of Danielle continues to strengthen and may develop into a tropical depression in the coming days…

Update 2010-08-23:Tropical Storm Danielle has now upgraded to Hurricane Danielle, the second named Atlantic hurricane this season. This intensification to category 1 comes a day earlier than was expected previously, and the storm is expected to intensify further over the next 48 hours, and become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Frank, however, has weakened a little, but expectations are that it will intensify again, attaining hurricane status by Wednesday. Discussions below, and from the linked images.

Further east, off the horn of Africa, another tropical low is shaping up to become a depression. This could be TS/H Earl if it gets a head of steam up in what is usually thought of as the Atlantic hurricane incubator.

Update 2010-08-22: Tropical Storm Danielle has emerged from a depression off the Cape Verde islands to become the 4th named tropical storm in the Atlantic this season. Early predictions have it possibly achieving hurricane status by Tuesday, although this is not seen as certain.

On the Pacific side, Tropical Storm Frank is slowly moving to swipe the Acapulco area of Mexico through to Tuesday. Frank is expected to increase to hurricane strength by late Monday.

Update – 2 2010-08-09: Estelle backtracked and began to weaken, currently demoted to a tropical depression.

Update – 2 2010-08-08: TS Colin gave it up at 5PM today and has been declared dissipated as a tropical storm.

Update 2010-08-08: Tropical Storm Estelle has made her appearance in the Eastern Pacific just south of Baja California. Estelle is expected to burn out by Monday as it heads westward into the open Pacific. See Advisories in the Eastern Pacific section below.

Update 2010-08-06: He’s ba-ack! TS Colin has re-emerged and is presently on course to hit Bermuda. Advisories below the graphics.

Update – 2 2010-08-03: TS Colin is turning out to be a dud. The system is steadily weakening. The NHC has suspended advisories on TS Colin unless it regenerates.

Update 2010-08-03: Tropical Storm Colin is named, currently positioned well eastward of the continental US and the Windward and Leeward Islands, and doesn’t pose a threat to land yet. Caution is advised for the northern Leewards.

Update 2010-07-24: Bonnie fell back to a tropical depression over Florida and has remained so over the Gulf, but may strengthen back to tropical storm status as it moves toward the northern gulf coast.

Update 2010-07-23: The tropical depression over the northern Carribean has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie. While not expected to achieve hurricane status, it is expected to move over the Deep Horizon site over the next couple of days.

Update 2010-07-02: Alex now downgraded to tropical depression over land, and declared dissipated at 10:00PM CDT.

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