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Hurricane Joaquin – Visible satellite image

Hurricane Joaquin Aviation false colour display

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 67.1W
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 67.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later this morning, with this motion
continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is still a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier
reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
provide a better assessment of Joaquin’s intensity this morning.

Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn
north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After
passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
guidance models.

Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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Roads and trains were shut down across the New York area Monday night and into Tuesday, and for what? It snowed in New York, but only 9.8 inches fell in Central Park after predictions of a foot and a half or more. What went wrong? Forecasters, including yours truly, decided to go all-in on one weather model: the European model (or Euro).

And the Euro was way off. Other models had this storm pegged.1

Update after update, the Euro (produced by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) kept predicting very high snow totals in New York. As of Monday morning’s run, the Euro was still projecting a foot and a half in the city. This consistency was too great for forecasters to ignore, especially because the Euro had been the first to jump on events such as the blizzard of 1996 and Hurricane Sandy. It also was one of the first to predict that a March 2001 storm was going to, like this one, be a bust. The Euro had a good track record.

That consistency, though, hid a great sense of uncertainty. The SREF (or Short-Range Ensemble Forecast), produced by the National Weather Service, collects 21 models (shown below). And Sunday night, the SREF indicated that the storm could be very different. Five of the 21 models in the SREF had (on a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio) less than 10 inches of snow falling. Nine of the 21 predicted a foot or less. Only eight could have been said to support 18 or more inches of snow in New York City.

screen-shot-2015-01-27-at-12-55-57-pm

In other words, 57 percent of the SREF members Sunday night suggested the forecasts were far too gung-ho. By Monday afternoon, 11 of the 21 members were on the 10-inches-or-less train. Eight of the 21 still supported big-time snow, but they were a minority.

The SREF members were not alone in being suspicious of so much snow. In Sunday’s 7 p.m. run, all of the other major models were against the Euro.

  • The American Global Forecasting System (GFS), which was recently upgraded, had only about 20 millimeters (or 8 inches of snow on a 10-to-1 ratio) falling for the storm. Although the GFS is considered inferior to the Euro by many meteorologists, the difference is probably overrated. Both models perform fairly well over the long term, as was pointed out in The New York Times this week. The GFS was showing the storm would stall too far northeast for New York to get the biggest snows. Instead, as we are seeing, those larger totals would be concentrated over Boston.
  • The GFS solution probably shouldn’t have been ignored given that it was joined by the Canadian’s global model, which had only 25 millimeters (or about 10 inches on a 10-to-1 ratio) falling as snow. The Canadian’s short-range model was slightly more pessimistic than the global. It predicted only about 20 to 25 millimeters (or 8 to 10 inches on a 10-to-1 ratio) of snow.
  • The United Kingdom’s model, which typically rates as the second-most accurate behind the Euro, was also on the little-snow train in New York. It had only 20 millimeters (or 8 inches on a 10-to-1 ratio) falling as snow.
  • Even the United States’ short-range North American Mesocale (NAM) model was on board with smaller accumulations, though it would change its tune in later runs and agree with the Euro for a time. On Sunday night, the NAM went with the 20 millimeters of snow.

Put it all together, and there was plenty of evidence this storm wouldn’t be record-setting in New York. Of course, forecasters are going to miss on occasion. Forecasting weather is very difficult. Models aren’t perfect, and forecasters should be practicing meteorology and not “modelology.”

That said, there are a few lessons to be learned:

  1. I’m not sure forecasters (including amateurs like myself) did a good enough job communicating to the public that there was great uncertainty in the forecast. This has been a problem for media forecasters who have historically been too confident in predicting precipitation events. A study of TV meteorologists in Kansas City found that when they predicted with 100 percent certainty that it would rain, it didn’t one-third of the time. Forecasters typically communicate margin of error by giving a range of outcomes (10 to 12 inches of snow, for example). In this instance, I don’t think the range adequately showed the disagreement among the models. Perhaps a probabilistic forecast is better.
  2. No model is infallible. Forecasters would have been better off averaging all the model data together, even the models that don’t have a stellar record. The Euro is king, but it’s not so good that we should ignore all other forecasts.
  3. There’s nothing wrong with changing a forecast. When the non-Euro models (except for the NAM) stayed consistent in showing about an inch or less of liquid precipitation (or 10 inches of snow on a 10-to-1 ratio) reaching New York and the Euro backed off its biggest predictions Monday afternoon, it was probably time for forecasters to change their stance. They waited too long; I’m not sure why.

Meteorology deals in probabilities and uncertainty. Models, and the forecasters who use those models, aren’t going to be perfect. In this case, there was a big storm. It just so happened to be confined to eastern Long Island and southern New England. But that’ll do little to satisfy New Yorkers who expected a historic blizzard.

2014-10-16: Hurricane Gonzalo has regained strength to a Category 4 storm, after risng to a 4 and dropping back to a 3 over the last 24 hours. Bermuda will take a direct hit from this storm by the look of it. Southeastern Newfoundland will likely see strong post-tropical storm conditions later this weekend.

“AVN” Aviation false colour enhancement.

“RGB” Combination vissible and Infared view with 3-colour red/green/blue false colour enhancement.

“Funktop” precipitation density enhancement

WTNT33 KNHC 160833
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

…GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN…
…CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 68.7W
ABOUT 540 MI…865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES…
AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY…BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046…LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES…145 KM…
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO…RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A GUST OF 51 MPH…83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB…27.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE…AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past
few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since
the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial
intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on the storm’s intensity.

Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has
completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours
while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is
forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the
track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to
remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.
After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes
post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone
late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above
most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the
LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving
northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is
in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo
expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a
little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been
adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a
little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the
center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in
the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of
Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across
the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 25.3N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical Storm Dolly ramped up from a depression overnight to a full-fledged tropical storm. Located in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico, Dolly is heading northwestward to impact Mexico just south of Brownsville, Texas.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Tropical Storm Dolly – visible image (night infared)

Tropical Storm Dolly – Aviation (AVN flase colour) image

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 98.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE DOLLY MOVES INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
MAINLY OVER THE WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.

The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

2014-08-01 Tropical Storm Bertha has formed east of the Lesser Antilles and is presently threatening Antigua, the French and Dutch Antilles and likely the BVI and Puerto Rico later on the weekend.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERTHA HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.4N 72.9W
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TODAY…AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

ROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Bertha’s winds have decreased below hurricane strength, which
is logical given that little deep convection now exists near the
center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which
could generous given that only 45-kt surface winds have been
reported thus far. However, the recon aircraft has not yet completed
its entire mission, so I do not want to bring the intensity
too quickly in the event stronger winds are found east of the center
and/or deep convection redevelops.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 015/19 kt. Bertha
briefly accelerated to about 21-22 kt after losing its deep
convection a few hours ago, but recon fix data suggests that the
cyclone’s motion has settled down to around 19 kt now. Overall, the
official track forecast and philosophy remains basically unchanged.
The NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Bertha
continuing its northeastward trek around the western periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then
accelerate eastward after getting caught up in the mid-latitude
westerlies by 36-48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to
but slightly west of the previous advisory track to account for the
more westward initial position, and closely follows the consensus
model TVCA.

Bertha is forecast to experience increasing vertical wind shear
over the next two days, with the shear reaching 50 kt or more by
24-36 hours. The combination of the strong shear and decreasing SSTs
should induce steady weakening and cause extratropical transition
by 36 hours or so. However, not as much weakening is expected with
such strong shear conditions due to the expected infusion of
baroclinic energy associated with a strong mid-latitude trough that
is forecast to capture Bertha by 48 hours, which will help maintain
the cyclone’s intensity. The intensity forecast during the
extratropical phase closely follows input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 33.4N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 35.9N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.6N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 44.1N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 48.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 49.3N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 50.3N 14.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical Depression One became the Atlantic’s first named storm this afternoon – Tropical Storm Arthur.
UPDATE 2014-07-03: Now upgraded to a category 1 hurricane.
UPDATE 2014-07-06: Once Arthur reached the maritimes, its strength as a hurricane diminished and will now slowly dissipate over the north Atlantic and into the Davis Strait.

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COASTAL WEBCAMS:
While atill operational, shoreline views from popular surfing areas along the ‘Banks Coastal Webcams
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Advisories and discussions:
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BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT…
…THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR…
…CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS
SYSTEM…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT…
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
…39 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH…98 KM/H HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED AT YARMOUNTH NOVA SCOTIA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB…29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NOVA
SCOTIA…SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK…AND PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION…WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING
WARNINGS…CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT:
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT
WOCN41 CWHX.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is
now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the
north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

2014-06-11: Hurricane Cristina has now reached hurricane strength, and is on a course that takes it away from the mainland. Other than high surf, there is little risk to land atr this time.

2014-06-10:Newly formed Tropical Storm Cristina poses a possible threat the Mexican coast in the Eastern Pacific. Approximately 150mi. offshore this morning, Cristina is currently only producing a high surf. Risk of intensification to hurricane strength is real based on atmospheric conditions in its northwesterly path. It is expected to move out away from the coast.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

…CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. CRISTINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY…AND
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

CRISTINA IS A SMALL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB…28.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TODAY…AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
during the past several hours. Convection around the center has
become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching
the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.

Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west
and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some
model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the last prediction.

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Hurricane Amanda, in the eastern Pacific, is this season’s first hurricane for the E-PAC and the Atlantic regions. Intensified quickly to Category 4, no risk to landfall expected. More info available at EWR’s 2014 Hurricane page.

Reposted from WUWT

Massive Nor’easter bigger than Hurricane Sandy expected to bring winds, snow, cold blast to Northeast for late March

March came in like a lion, and it looks like the lion isn’t leaving, but you can’t blame the “polar vortex” this time.

As a massive winter storm at sea known as a Nor’easter prepares to skirts the Northeast coast of the USA,  bringing with it high seas and bitterly cold weather in its wake, Dr. Ryan Maue writes:

Massive Nor’easter will develop a warm-core thru a seclusion process.

Compare previous image w/Hurricane Sandy– same 850-mb Wind speed & MSLP. Nor’easter wind field much stronger/larger.

[It is] maybe 4 times more powerful than Sandy based on integrated KE of wind field.

The image of the storm is quite stunning for it’s sheer size. Images and animation follow.

 

noreaster_sandy-compare1

Compare that to these satellite photos of Hurricane Sandy:

Hurricane Sandy satellite image

Hurricane Sandy winding up before making landfall Image: NOAA

Hurricane Sandy near Landfall. Image: NOAA

Watch this animation of the storm as it is forecast to develop, click it to get it to animate full size.

gfs_2014032512_pres_uv10m_east3

The biggest difference here is the track, Sandy made landfall in NYC, this nor’easter is not expected to there, but will skirt the coast and will make landfall later in Newfoundland,  But, it will have a significant effect on the northeast USA due to its ability to transport air mass.

He adds:

Not the #polarvortex this time. Textbook tropopause fold & baroclinic wrapup

maue_noreaster_baroclinic

What that will do is act like a pump, and pull bitterly cold air in behind it (note the stream in the rendering above). The result will be a late March like no other, possibly the coldest late March on record for the area:

noreaster_late_marchtemps

Reposted from WattsUpWithThat.

Arctic blast coming to Eastern US – likely to be the coldest opening to calendar spring in at least 50 years

Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal

Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:

I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.

and

[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.

Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:

NCEP_GFS_ensMean_Mar24

Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:

ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.

ECMWF_temp_anomaly_Mar27

He added:

Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March

If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Canadian_model_mar24

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