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Hurricane Joaquin – Visible satellite image

Hurricane Joaquin Aviation false colour display

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 67.1W
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 67.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later this morning, with this motion
continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is still a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier
reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
provide a better assessment of Joaquin’s intensity this morning.

Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn
north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After
passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
guidance models.

Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2014-10-16: Hurricane Gonzalo has regained strength to a Category 4 storm, after risng to a 4 and dropping back to a 3 over the last 24 hours. Bermuda will take a direct hit from this storm by the look of it. Southeastern Newfoundland will likely see strong post-tropical storm conditions later this weekend.

“AVN” Aviation false colour enhancement.

“RGB” Combination vissible and Infared view with 3-colour red/green/blue false colour enhancement.

“Funktop” precipitation density enhancement

WTNT33 KNHC 160833
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

…GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN…
…CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 68.7W
ABOUT 540 MI…865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES…
AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY…BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046…LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES…145 KM…
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO…RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A GUST OF 51 MPH…83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB…27.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE…AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past
few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since
the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial
intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on the storm’s intensity.

Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has
completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours
while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is
forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the
track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to
remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.
After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes
post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone
late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above
most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the
LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving
northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is
in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo
expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a
little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been
adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a
little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the
center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in
the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of
Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across
the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 25.3N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical Depression One became the Atlantic’s first named storm this afternoon – Tropical Storm Arthur.
UPDATE 2014-07-03: Now upgraded to a category 1 hurricane.
UPDATE 2014-07-06: Once Arthur reached the maritimes, its strength as a hurricane diminished and will now slowly dissipate over the north Atlantic and into the Davis Strait.

___________________________________________________

COASTAL WEBCAMS:
While atill operational, shoreline views from popular surfing areas along the ‘Banks Coastal Webcams
___________________________________________________

Advisories and discussions:
For more recent advisories, if available, CLICK HERE.
For more recent discussions, if available, CLICK HERE.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT…
…THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR…
…CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS
SYSTEM…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT…
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
…39 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH…98 KM/H HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED AT YARMOUNTH NOVA SCOTIA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB…29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NOVA
SCOTIA…SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK…AND PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION…WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING
WARNINGS…CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT:
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT
WOCN41 CWHX.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is
now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the
north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Hurricane Amanda, in the eastern Pacific, is this season’s first hurricane for the E-PAC and the Atlantic regions. Intensified quickly to Category 4, no risk to landfall expected. More info available at EWR’s 2014 Hurricane page.

Aviation Infared view

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

…RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI…945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT…
AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK…SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Manuel – visible image

Aviation infared enhanced view

Manuel degenerated to a tropical remnant on Monday, but by Tuesday, had regenerated to a tropical depression again. Wednesday, it reorganized to a tropical storm, and into a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

…MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.0N 107.8W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF MANUEL MADE
LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN SHORTLY AFTER 500 AM PDT.

AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST.
MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY….AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOW THAT MANUEL HAS MOVED OVER LAND…WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
SOON…AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MANUEL IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE MANUEL MADE LANDFALL. THE STORM SURGE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED…
AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SINCE THAT TIME…RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT
CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200
UTC…WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY. THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36
HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Aviation infared enhanced view

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

…INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
…HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 75 MI…125 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS…A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.47
INCHES…139 MM…HAS OCCURRED AT CABEZONES MEXICO.

WIND…GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING…ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE…HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1800Z…DISSIPATED

While the official NOAA position is that 2013 will be an active hurricane season, other experienced watchers believe that’s not necessarily the case. For current tropical storm activity, you can follow the season for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific at our Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity 2013 page.

What is the Saffir-Simpson Scale of hurricane categories?

Update-2 2013-05-30: Tropical depression Barbara has become disorganized and is dissipating.

Update 2013-05-30: Hurricane Barbara has collapsed over land and is now a tropical depression. However, the potential exists for it to reform as a cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico as it emerges from the land.

Update 2013-05-29: Tropical Storm Barbara became a Category 1 hurricane today.

AVN false colour image. Click image for current loop Courtesy NOAA.

Visble satellite view. Click image for current loop. Coutesu NOAA

WTPZ32 KNHC 302031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

…BARBARA DISSIPATES…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.5N 94.5W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM NNW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BARBARA NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION…AND IS THEREFORE
NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. THE
REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…35 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…BRINGING STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BARBARA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

WTPZ42 KNHC 302031
TCDEP2

REMNANTS OF BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

THREE SURFACE OBSERVING SITES NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST…YET
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A
WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THESE SITES. APPARENTLY
THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EITHER NOT AT THE SURFACE OR IS EXTREMELY
WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. SINCE BARBARA DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION…IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE…AND
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. OUR OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT BARBARA DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED…DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS…AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 18.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…REMNANTS
12H 31/0600Z…DISSIPATED

_______________________________________________
Follow more general hurricane info at Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity 2013

Update:2013-05-17: Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific… and Alvin poops to a trough. Alvin! ALVIN! (with apologies to The Chipmunks…)

Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific, east of Central America and well offshore, is this season’s first named storm. With a track to the northwest, little impact is expected. As of this morning windspeeds are approximately 50mph and are expected to strengthen to Category 1 hurricane strength over the next day or so.

For more info about current hurricane activity follow Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity 2013.

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