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Tropical Storm Dolly ramped up from a depression overnight to a full-fledged tropical storm. Located in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico, Dolly is heading northwestward to impact Mexico just south of Brownsville, Texas.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Tropical Storm Dolly – visible image (night infared)

Tropical Storm Dolly – Aviation (AVN flase colour) image

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 98.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE DOLLY MOVES INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
MAINLY OVER THE WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.

The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

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2014-08-01 Tropical Storm Bertha has formed east of the Lesser Antilles and is presently threatening Antigua, the French and Dutch Antilles and likely the BVI and Puerto Rico later on the weekend.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERTHA HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.4N 72.9W
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TODAY…AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

ROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Bertha’s winds have decreased below hurricane strength, which
is logical given that little deep convection now exists near the
center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which
could generous given that only 45-kt surface winds have been
reported thus far. However, the recon aircraft has not yet completed
its entire mission, so I do not want to bring the intensity
too quickly in the event stronger winds are found east of the center
and/or deep convection redevelops.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 015/19 kt. Bertha
briefly accelerated to about 21-22 kt after losing its deep
convection a few hours ago, but recon fix data suggests that the
cyclone’s motion has settled down to around 19 kt now. Overall, the
official track forecast and philosophy remains basically unchanged.
The NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Bertha
continuing its northeastward trek around the western periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then
accelerate eastward after getting caught up in the mid-latitude
westerlies by 36-48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to
but slightly west of the previous advisory track to account for the
more westward initial position, and closely follows the consensus
model TVCA.

Bertha is forecast to experience increasing vertical wind shear
over the next two days, with the shear reaching 50 kt or more by
24-36 hours. The combination of the strong shear and decreasing SSTs
should induce steady weakening and cause extratropical transition
by 36 hours or so. However, not as much weakening is expected with
such strong shear conditions due to the expected infusion of
baroclinic energy associated with a strong mid-latitude trough that
is forecast to capture Bertha by 48 hours, which will help maintain
the cyclone’s intensity. The intensity forecast during the
extratropical phase closely follows input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 33.4N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 35.9N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.6N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 44.1N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 48.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 49.3N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 50.3N 14.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical Depression One became the Atlantic’s first named storm this afternoon – Tropical Storm Arthur.
UPDATE 2014-07-03: Now upgraded to a category 1 hurricane.
UPDATE 2014-07-06: Once Arthur reached the maritimes, its strength as a hurricane diminished and will now slowly dissipate over the north Atlantic and into the Davis Strait.

___________________________________________________

COASTAL WEBCAMS:
While atill operational, shoreline views from popular surfing areas along the ‘Banks Coastal Webcams
___________________________________________________

Advisories and discussions:
For more recent advisories, if available, CLICK HERE.
For more recent discussions, if available, CLICK HERE.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT…
…THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR…
…CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS
SYSTEM…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT…
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
…39 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH…98 KM/H HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED AT YARMOUNTH NOVA SCOTIA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB…29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NOVA
SCOTIA…SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK…AND PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION…WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING
WARNINGS…CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT:
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML …IN ALL LOWER CASE.

STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT
WOCN41 CWHX.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is
now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the
north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Reposted from WUWT

Massive Nor’easter bigger than Hurricane Sandy expected to bring winds, snow, cold blast to Northeast for late March

March came in like a lion, and it looks like the lion isn’t leaving, but you can’t blame the “polar vortex” this time.

As a massive winter storm at sea known as a Nor’easter prepares to skirts the Northeast coast of the USA,  bringing with it high seas and bitterly cold weather in its wake, Dr. Ryan Maue writes:

Massive Nor’easter will develop a warm-core thru a seclusion process.

Compare previous image w/Hurricane Sandy– same 850-mb Wind speed & MSLP. Nor’easter wind field much stronger/larger.

[It is] maybe 4 times more powerful than Sandy based on integrated KE of wind field.

The image of the storm is quite stunning for it’s sheer size. Images and animation follow.

 

noreaster_sandy-compare1

Compare that to these satellite photos of Hurricane Sandy:

Hurricane Sandy satellite image

Hurricane Sandy winding up before making landfall Image: NOAA

Hurricane Sandy near Landfall. Image: NOAA

Watch this animation of the storm as it is forecast to develop, click it to get it to animate full size.

gfs_2014032512_pres_uv10m_east3

The biggest difference here is the track, Sandy made landfall in NYC, this nor’easter is not expected to there, but will skirt the coast and will make landfall later in Newfoundland,  But, it will have a significant effect on the northeast USA due to its ability to transport air mass.

He adds:

Not the #polarvortex this time. Textbook tropopause fold & baroclinic wrapup

maue_noreaster_baroclinic

What that will do is act like a pump, and pull bitterly cold air in behind it (note the stream in the rendering above). The result will be a late March like no other, possibly the coldest late March on record for the area:

noreaster_late_marchtemps

2013-11-04:Sonia rapidly deteriorates to a tropical depression once it reaches land.

Upgraded from a tropical depression, Tropical Storm Sonia, 400 miles south of Baja California in Mexico, has deepened convection and become better organized, and is currently on a course northward to Baja, with projections to turn to the northeast this afternoon.

Aviation Infarad View

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

…SONIA MOVES INLAND OVER SINALOA AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM NNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SINALOA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA MOVED INLAND
ALONG THE COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO A FEW HOURS
AGO.

AT 100 AM PST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA
WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST.
SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…
AND AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND SONIA
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SINALOA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL…SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…IN
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA…WESTERN DURANGO…AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
UTC…AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME.
NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND…SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS…AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR.
EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
POSITION…SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
IT REACHED LAND…BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA…WESTERN DURANGO…AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Aviation Infared view

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

…RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI…945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT…
AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK…SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED

2013-10-06: TD Karen is now diminishing as it crosses over land and is expected to dissipate over the next 36-48 hours. Never having reached hurricane strength, it’s still capable of dropping considerable rain.

2013-10-04: TS Karen remains below category one hurricane threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Upper atmosphere conditions are conflicting the models as to if and by how much Karen may strengthen prior to reaching the US gulf coast. Current projects are that it may strengthen to Cat 1 strength over the next 48 hours depending on the path it takes.

Karen is approaching category one hurricane level with speeds approaching 65 knots. Impact on the gulf states of the US, Louisiana, epsecially is expected by Saturday.

Predicted path of Tropical Storm Karen

Visible satellite view

Aviation infared enhanced view

WTNT32 KNHC 060831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

…KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 100 MI…165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH…4
KM/H…AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY…MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH…45
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER.

WTNT42 KNHC 060831
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES…AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON…WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR…KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST…AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Manuel – visible image

Aviation infared enhanced view

Manuel degenerated to a tropical remnant on Monday, but by Tuesday, had regenerated to a tropical depression again. Wednesday, it reorganized to a tropical storm, and into a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

…MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.0N 107.8W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF MANUEL MADE
LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN SHORTLY AFTER 500 AM PDT.

AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST.
MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY….AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOW THAT MANUEL HAS MOVED OVER LAND…WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
SOON…AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MANUEL IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE MANUEL MADE LANDFALL. THE STORM SURGE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED…
AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SINCE THAT TIME…RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT
CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200
UTC…WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY. THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36
HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Aviation infared enhanced view

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

…INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
…HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 75 MI…125 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS…A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.47
INCHES…139 MM…HAS OCCURRED AT CABEZONES MEXICO.

WIND…GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING…ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE…HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1800Z…DISSIPATED

2013-07-11: Tropical Storm Chantal has dissipated.

2013-07-10: Tropical Storm Chantal is having difficult holding together and may diminish to a tropical wave.

The images above contains active information elements which can be accessed at the NHC site. Click on the image to go there or to the National Hurricane Center.

WTNT33 KNHC 100837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

…CHANTAL WEAKENING…
…MAY BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO…AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA ARE
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH…46 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY…
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY…NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY…AND
NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED…AND THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB…29.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER THIS MORNING…AND HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE…ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES…WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL…CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

WTNT43 KNHC 100837
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY
42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING…AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT…AND THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS
EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE…DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SHEAR…ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION…SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK…THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD…NEAR 28 KT…OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE…LONGER-TERM…ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN
CHANTAL…OR ITS REMNANT…TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY… THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE…ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

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