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Hurricane Joaquin – Visible satellite image

Hurricane Joaquin Aviation false colour display

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 67.1W
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 67.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later this morning, with this motion
continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is still a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier
reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
provide a better assessment of Joaquin’s intensity this morning.

Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn
north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After
passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
guidance models.

Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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