2013-11-04:Sonia rapidly deteriorates to a tropical depression once it reaches land.

Upgraded from a tropical depression, Tropical Storm Sonia, 400 miles south of Baja California in Mexico, has deepened convection and become better organized, and is currently on a course northward to Baja, with projections to turn to the northeast this afternoon.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

…SONIA MOVES INLAND OVER SINALOA AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM NNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SINALOA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA MOVED INLAND
ALONG THE COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO A FEW HOURS
AGO.

AT 100 AM PST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA
WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST.
SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…
AND AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND SONIA
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SINALOA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL…SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…IN
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA…WESTERN DURANGO…AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
UTC…AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME.
NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND…SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS…AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR.
EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
POSITION…SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
IT REACHED LAND…BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA…WESTERN DURANGO…AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z…DISSIPATED