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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

…RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI…945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT…
AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK…SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED