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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

…RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI…945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT…
AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK…SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED

2013-10-06: TD Karen is now diminishing as it crosses over land and is expected to dissipate over the next 36-48 hours. Never having reached hurricane strength, it’s still capable of dropping considerable rain.

2013-10-04: TS Karen remains below category one hurricane threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Upper atmosphere conditions are conflicting the models as to if and by how much Karen may strengthen prior to reaching the US gulf coast. Current projects are that it may strengthen to Cat 1 strength over the next 48 hours depending on the path it takes.

Karen is approaching category one hurricane level with speeds approaching 65 knots. Impact on the gulf states of the US, Louisiana, epsecially is expected by Saturday.

Predicted path of Tropical Storm Karen

Visible satellite view

Aviation infared enhanced view

WTNT32 KNHC 060831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

…KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 100 MI…165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH…4
KM/H…AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY…MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH…45
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER.

WTNT42 KNHC 060831
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES…AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON…WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR…KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST…AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

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