Tropical Storm Manuel – visible image

Aviation infared enhanced view

Manuel degenerated to a tropical remnant on Monday, but by Tuesday, had regenerated to a tropical depression again. Wednesday, it reorganized to a tropical storm, and into a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

…MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.0N 107.8W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF MANUEL MADE
LANDFALL WEST OF CULIACAN SHORTLY AFTER 500 AM PDT.

AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST.
MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY….AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOW THAT MANUEL HAS MOVED OVER LAND…WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
SOON…AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MANUEL IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE MANUEL MADE LANDFALL. THE STORM SURGE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED…
AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SINCE THAT TIME…RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT
CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200
UTC…WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY. THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36
HOURS…IF NOT SOONER.

THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED