Aviation infared enhanced view

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

…INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
…HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 75 MI…125 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS…A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.47
INCHES…139 MM…HAS OCCURRED AT CABEZONES MEXICO.

WIND…GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING…ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE…HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1800Z…DISSIPATED