2013-07-11: Tropical Storm Chantal has dissipated.

2013-07-10: Tropical Storm Chantal is having difficult holding together and may diminish to a tropical wave.

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WTNT33 KNHC 100837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

…CHANTAL WEAKENING…
…MAY BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO…AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA ARE
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH…46 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY…
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY…NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY…AND
NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED…AND THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB…29.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER THIS MORNING…AND HAITI LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE…ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES…WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL…CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

WTNT43 KNHC 100837
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY
42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING…AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT…AND THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS
EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE…DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SHEAR…ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION…SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK…THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD…NEAR 28 KT…OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE…LONGER-TERM…ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN
CHANTAL…OR ITS REMNANT…TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY… THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE…ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND