2012-10-17: We have discontinued updates of tropical Storm Paul, now degraded to a tropical depression.

2012-10-16: Update: Hurricane Paul has slowed and weakened back to tropical storm intensity as it reached the coast.

2012-10-16: Hurricane Paul has dropped back in intensity to a category 2 hurricane, and is moving quickly toward Baja. Wind shear aloft is expected to reduce its intensity as it gets to Baja, but still remain as a hurricane. The expected track is a turn to the north, then northwest once it reaches the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: Update: Hurricane Paul, in the eastern Pacific, has intensified and reached major hurricane strength (category 3). Tracking modeling has placed the path of the hurricane further inland along the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: TS Paul in the eastern Pacific, west of Baja Califorina has reached hurricane strength (category 1) and continues to strengthen. It’s expected to begin to side-swipe Baja beginning Tues night, but storm surge will be felt well before then. Developing.

[For general monitoring of the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season, follow our post at Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane activity 2012)]

Forecast track for Hurricane Paul

GOES West Satellite.- Vissible image Hurricane Paul – Image is linked to loop

GOES West satellite – AVN presentation, Hurricane Paul. Image is linked to loop.

WTPZ31 KNHC 172036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

…PAUL DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.

SURF…SWELLS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE COAST OF SINALOA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

WTPZ41 KNHC 172036
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS…
WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION…THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS…IT IS ESTIMATED THAT
PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR…PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36
HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10…AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z…DISSIPATED