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[Ed. Note: crossposted from WUWT. Hawaii experienced some low amplitude tsunami waves of generally less than one meter, although evacuations of some regions were ordered in advance last night.]

7.7 Earthquake off west coast of Canada, Tsunami warnings issued

Posted on October 27, 2012 by

An earthquake with magnitude 7.7 occurred near Prince Rupert, BC, Canada at 03:04:10.56 UTC on Oct 28, 2012. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

Map below:

Open map in new window  Epicenter

BULLETIN
PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 6
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1044 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON.

…THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO
DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
BRITISH COLUMBIA…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…
And also:

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
709 PM HST SAT OCT 27 2012

TO – CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WARNING

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0709 PM HST. THIS UPGRADE IS DUE TO THE SEA LEVEL READINGS
RECEIVED AND THE RESULTING CHANGE IN THE HAWAII TSUNAMI
FORECAST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 0504 PM HST 27 OCT 2012
COORDINATES – 52.8 NORTH 131.8 WEST
LOCATION – QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE – 7.7 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
DART 46404 45.9N 128.8W 0417Z 0.05M / 0.2FT 20MIN
LANGARA POINT BC 54.2N 133.1W 0424Z 0.20M / 0.7FT 26MIN
DART 46419 48.8N 129.6W 0346Z 0.06M / 0.2FT 12MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE – DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

WEHW40 PHEB 280804
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-281004-
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 6
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1003 PM HST SAT OCT 27 2012

TO – CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 0504 PM HST 27 OCT 2012
COORDINATES – 52.8 NORTH 131.8 WEST
LOCATION – QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE – 7.7 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
SITKA AK 57.1N 135.3W 0542Z 0.09M / 0.3FT 30MIN
CRESCENT CITY CA 41.7N 124.2W 0736Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 24MIN
DART 46419 48.8N 129.6W 0344Z 0.07M / 0.2FT 20MIN
ARENA COVE CA 38.9N 123.7W 0633Z 0.32M / 1.1FT 06MIN
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.5N 128.0W 0413Z 0.23M / 0.8FT 30MIN
DART 46404 45.9N 128.8W 0417Z 0.05M / 0.2FT 20MIN
LANGARA POINT BC 54.2N 133.1W 0424Z 0.20M / 0.7FT 26MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE – DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

Tsunami warning lifted for Hawaii
State downgraded to tsunami advisory
UPDATED 2:45 AM HST Oct 28, 2012

Hawaii awaits all-clear from tsunami warning

HONOLULU —A tsunami warning for the state of Hawaii was lifted just after 1 a.m. Sunday, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

A tsunami warning was issued 7 p.m. Saturday following a 7.7 magnitude quake off of the west coast of Canada near British Columbia Saturday evening at 5:04 p.m.

The quake struck on the Queen Charlotte Islands Region of British Columbia, 452 miles northwest of Vancouver and 164 miles south of Alaska.

A tsunami warning was immediately implemented for the entire western seaboard of the United States and Canada, stretching from Alaska to the California/Mexico border. That was reduced to a regional warning to areas immediately surrounding the earthquake.

The Hawaii alert was issued at 7:09 p.m. after further buoy readings indicated that Hawaii could be impacted.

The tsunami advisory was issued at 12:54 a.m. Sunday.  Sea level changes and strong current may still occur along all coasts that could be a hazard to swimmers and boaters as well as people near the shore at beaches in harbors and marinas.  This threat may continue for several hours.

City officials are suggesting people stay out of the water during the tsunami advisory.

The state will have harbors closed during the tsunami advisory.

State officials also say that three flights were canceled on Oahu and five flights canceled on Maui due to the tsunami warning.

2012-10-30: Discussion of Sandy as a hurricane has now concluded.

2012-10-29: Update: [from the 5 PM NHC discussion] THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE POST-LANDFALL TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. DESPITE THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION TODAY…SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND TOMORROW. THIS…COUPLED WITH THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM…WILL MEAN THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS…AS
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN
ALTITUDE ARE VERY MUCH STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN
AS SANDY WEAKENS…HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE
AREA…POSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK.

2012-10-29: [from the 5 AM NHC discussion] CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR ABOUT 360/13…AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA…SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL…THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.

2012-10-28: Update: Sandy is expected to make landfall over the upper Delmarva Penisula by Tuesday morning as a winter-characteristic extra-tropical cyclone. Conversion to a an extra-tropical storm just before landfall is not expected to diminish the intensity, and in fact, increase it some. Weakening is expected once on land. High elevations in the Appalachia and Great Smokey Mountains may see precipitation as snow with amounts measured in feet. Hurricane-force wind radius from centre is currently measured at 175 miles and tropical storm winds out beyond 500 miles.

2012-10-28: Sandy is expected to continue to hover around the bottom end of the category one boundary over the next two days until it reaches landfall, projected to be over the Delmarva Peninsula, just north of Chesapeake. The hurricane strength wind radius remains very large, +/-165km from the storm cemtre. Potential still exists for transformation to a tropical cyclone, but the forecast expectation is for transformation to an extra-tropical cyclone within 48 hours, with rapid weakening over landfall. This weakening was beginning to be evident in some of the longer range forecast models last night. It remains important to note, however, while overall intensity may fall, the extremely large area of the storm, coupled with a strong low pressure trough over the US northwest and south central and eastern Canada, and a blocking high over extreme eastern Canada may increase the storm duration over the lower Great Lakes Basin and St. Lawrence Valley. This may result in greater than average rainfall over the duration of the storm. The pressure gradient of Sandy remains deep, 960 mb (28.35 in), which will hold wind speeds high until significant pressure infill occurs.

[Ed. note: Daily entries prior to the 28th have been moved to the 2012 archive in Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity 2012 post.]

[For general monitoring of the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season, follow our post at Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane activity 2012)]

Please note, the charts are dynamic, and will change as the forecast models run.

Animation of the future path of Sandy to 2AM EDT Tuesday. Weatherbell Models

Click the chart image below to go to the most recent advisory.

Fronts/Pressure forecast from NOAA, forecast 48 hours out from now. The tight pressure rings of Sandy are the concern – the more and closer they are, the stronger the wind. Sandy’s gradient is indicative of very strong winds.

Model Guidance for Hurricane Sandy, from Weatherbell Models

20-memeber ensemble guidance for Hurricane Sandy, Weatherbell Models. The ensemble forecast is a “best fit” aggregate of several models combined.

Visible GOES East Satellite Image. Click for loop.

AVN colour enhanced satellite image. Click for loop.

WTNT33 KNHC 300251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…SANDY STILL PACKING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS…
…NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER…THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST
BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND
TO SMITH POINT…THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY…DELAWARE
BAY…AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA…NEW
JERSEY…THE NEW YORK CITY AREA…LONG ISLAND…CONNECTICUT…AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF CHATHAM
THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND…AND OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…
AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 18
MPH…30 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 485 MILES…780 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56
MPH…WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA
AIRPORT IN NEW YORK. A TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY AUTOMATED OBSERVING
SITE HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH…WITH A GUST TO 67
MPH…ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA IS 952
MB…28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
JERSEY…NEW YORK…SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE…

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…2 TO 4 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND NEW YORK HARBOR…6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY…3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY…2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER…1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER…WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SANDY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH…BEGINNING AT 500 AM EDT. THESE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON THE NHC WEBSITE.

[last public discussion]
WTNT43 KNHC 292157
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY…EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL…SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE…AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION…AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER…FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON SANDY WILL BE ISSUED AT
11 PM EDT TONIGHT. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED…THERE WILL BE NO INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BETWEEN NOW AND THE 11 PM NHC ADVISORY. TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION…NHC WILL ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES AT 7 PM AND 9 PM EDT…AND AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THESE
UPDATES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT63…AND AWIPS HEADER
TCUAT3…AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON THE NHC WEBSITE. BEGINNING
AT 5 AM EDT TUESDAY…PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER…HPC…UNDER THE SAME WMO
AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES…WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE POST-LANDFALL TRACK OR
INTENSITY FORECAST. DESPITE THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION TODAY…SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND TOMORROW. THIS…COUPLED WITH THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM…WILL MEAN THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS…AS
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN
ALTITUDE ARE VERY MUCH STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN
AS SANDY WEAKENS…HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE
AREA…POSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK.

TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL
WARNINGS AS SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL…THE WIND AND OTHER
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 39.8N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z 40.4N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 41.3N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 45.1N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.3N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 47.5N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2012-10-19: The massive cyclonic low churning over Lake Superior, coupled with the jetstream will funnel deep cold arctic air into the central US over the coming week. Fed by Pacific moisture, cold snowy conditions could be on the table for the upper Midwest states. There is enough energy here to channel that frigid arctic air right around to the central eastern states. Brrr!

2012-10-17: We have discontinued updates of tropical Storm Paul, now degraded to a tropical depression.

2012-10-16: Update: Hurricane Paul has slowed and weakened back to tropical storm intensity as it reached the coast.

2012-10-16: Hurricane Paul has dropped back in intensity to a category 2 hurricane, and is moving quickly toward Baja. Wind shear aloft is expected to reduce its intensity as it gets to Baja, but still remain as a hurricane. The expected track is a turn to the north, then northwest once it reaches the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: Update: Hurricane Paul, in the eastern Pacific, has intensified and reached major hurricane strength (category 3). Tracking modeling has placed the path of the hurricane further inland along the Baja coast.

2012-10-15: TS Paul in the eastern Pacific, west of Baja Califorina has reached hurricane strength (category 1) and continues to strengthen. It’s expected to begin to side-swipe Baja beginning Tues night, but storm surge will be felt well before then. Developing.

[For general monitoring of the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season, follow our post at Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane activity 2012)]

Forecast track for Hurricane Paul

GOES West Satellite.- Vissible image Hurricane Paul – Image is linked to loop

GOES West satellite – AVN presentation, Hurricane Paul. Image is linked to loop.

WTPZ31 KNHC 172036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

…PAUL DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.

SURF…SWELLS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE COAST OF SINALOA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

WTPZ41 KNHC 172036
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS…
WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION…THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS…IT IS ESTIMATED THAT
PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR…PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN…AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36
HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10…AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z…DISSIPATED

2012-10-17: This is out last update of Rafael, now a post-tropical cyclone.

2012-10-15: UPDATE: Tropical Storm Rafael has just been upgraded to a category one hurricane as a result of NOAA/NHC surveillance aircraft overflights.

2012-10-15: Name updated from Raphael to Rafael to match the NHC terminology. Rafael is expected to reach hurricane strength later today. While it appears it will miss Bermuda as a hurricane, it will be felt as a tropical storm on the island.

2012-10-14: Storm tracking for Bermuda is now setting the storm east of Bermuda. Storm surge should still be a factor but rain impact likely will be lessened if the storm stays true to course. High seas and heavy rains are still forecast for the Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques. Rafael is projected by the NHC to reach hurricane status tomorrow.

2012-10-13: Tropical Storm Rafael pounded portions of Trinidad and Tobago and the lower Carribean and continues to cause strong seas and rain as it moves northward along the inside of Leeward Islands. Bermuda places Rafael as passing over The Virgin Islands Sunday morning, and Bermuda Tuesday night, and is holding it as a tropical storm (SS cat 0)

[For general monitoring of the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane season, follow our post at Atlantic and eastern Pacific Hurricane activity 2012)]

EWR currently monitoring: none
___________________________________

Tropical Storm Rafael, as tracked by the Bermuda Weather Service

Model Tracking of Rafael, from Weatherbell Models, Dr. Ryan Maue.

GOES East satellite – visible – Hurricane Rafael – image links to loop

GOES East satellite – AVN presentation – Hurricane Rafael. Image links to loop.

WTNT32 KNHC 172049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

…RAFAEL NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.2N 56.5W
ABOUT 475 MI…760 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH…56 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM…
FROM THE CENTER…AND GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB…28.70 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF EASTERN CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

WTNT42 KNHC 172050
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL THIS AFTERNOON…THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME THAT OF AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. EARLIER ASCAT
DATA SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM…AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON…THE FRONT IS
ANALYZED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE…RAFAEL
HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ASCAT DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF 50-60 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…
BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RAFAEL HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THEN
COMPLETE A CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 40.2N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 18/0600Z 42.9N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/1800Z 46.0N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z 52.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 54.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 47.6N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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