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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

…ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO THIS MORNING…HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.

RAINFALL…ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ…TABASCO…PUEBLA…AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION…AROUND 0600 UTC…MEASURED
A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. HOWEVER…IT APPEARS..BASED ON
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 55-59 KT AND A STANDARD REDUCED MEAN BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OF 58 KT FROM A DROPWINDSONDE…THAT THESE WINDS WERE
NOT BEING EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. ERNESTO APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OR SO OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN WHICH TO
INTENSIFY…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…
ERNESTO SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF MEXICO.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS
ACCELERATED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270 AT 14 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME DECELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
BEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 18.7N 93.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.2W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
24H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 17.7N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED