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[Updated 10:00 AM EDT 2011-08-28] Southern Ontario will awake to the outer cloud bands of Irene Sunday morning, and may see rain bands out of the northeast by Sunday evening. The GH-GTA will see only cloud and perhaps the odd light shower, due to the presence of a large dome of high pressure developing over northwestern Ontario. Southwestern Ontario is only expected to receive increased cloudiness. Since Irene’s expected track remains able to feed on Atlantic moisture, periods of moderate rain with gusty winds remain possible in the eastern corner of the province.

Ephemerata Weather Radar will be set up to monitor the approaching rain bands as they move toward southern Ontario.

Now downgraded to a tropical storm, the eye of Hurricane Irene moved inland yesterday. Impact with land and the cooler extra-tropical waters has reduced Irene’s intensity to tropical storm status, but Irene remains a very large and locally dangerous storm. Model track guidance remains mostly consistent with the path following up the US seaboard, across New England and over the Eastern Townships and New Brunswick. Irene will continue to be capable of large amounts of rain and strong winds throughout its journey as a tropical storm.

Go to our Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane page for more information and links to official monitoring sites.


Hurricane Irene 2011-08-28: 07:35 AM EDT: Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Storm image is GOES visible view wih NWS NEXRAD radar overlaid. Click on image to enlarge to full size.

AWCN11 CWTO 222108
Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the
National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada
At 2:15 PM EDT Monday 22 August 2011.

————————————————————-
==weather event discussion==

A series of severe thunderstorms affected Southern Ontario on Sunday
afternoon, associated with a sharp cold front.

Environment Canada has confirmed that, at approximately 4:00 PM
Sunday, a tornado tracked from the Lake Huron shoreline through
Goderich and southeastward to just east of summerhill. A survey team
has done an assessment of the damage and has rated the tornado as
Fujita scale three, with peak wind speeds estimated at 280 km/h. The
length of the tornado track was approximately 20 km, with a width
that varied from as wide as 500 m in Goderich to less than 200 m
further to the southeast. The survey team has reported that the most
extensive damage was in downtown Goderich, including structural
damage to buildings, roofs removed, numerous vehicles overturned and
trees down. There is one reported fatality, and a number of people
with unknown injuries. The last confirmed Fujita scale three tornado
to occur in Ontario was on April 20th, 1996 when two Fujita scale
three tornadoes occured (one from williamsford to blantyre, the
Other from Arthur to violet hill).

Elsewhere over Southern Ontario on Sunday, there were also reports
Of torrential downpours, large hail and damaging winds over several
areas extending from Goderich through the greater Toronto area and
east towards the St Lawrence river. Reports of damage in Gananoque
At around 12:45 PM, along with associated eye witness reports of
funnel clouds, suggest a brief tornado may have occured there as
well, although this has yet to be confirmed by Environment Canada
And continues to be investigated.

Following are some of the reports of weather and damage received by
Environment Canada as of 5:00 PM Monday.

————————————————————-
Location time weather/damage report

Gananoque 12:45 PM several trees down damage to above
Ground pool and roof few power lines
Down

Brampton 2:30 PM heavy rain and intense small hail
3:00 PM 19 mm rain in 10 minutes

Toronto 2:40 PM EST. Gust 80 to 100 km/h
Flooding over Hwy 401 near yorkdale
Flooding on donway west

Toronto East York 2:55 PM wind gust 72.4 km/h,
43.6 mm in 10 min

Goderich airport 4:00 PM gust to 87 km/h

Goderich 4:00 PM several roofs removed from buildings
And walls crumbled. Structural
Damage to arena, factories and
Houses. Report of 1 fatality, number
Of people injured. Grain elevator
Damaged several trees down
Numerous cars damaged.

Stratford 4:45 PM very large hail reported

This weather summary contains preliminary information
And may not constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC

Update 2011-08-27: The eye of Hurricane Irene is expected to move inland later today. Impact with land and the cooler extra-tropical waters has reduced Irene’s intensity to category 1, but Irene remains a very large and locally dangerous storm. Model track guidance remains mostly consistent with the path following up the US seaboard, across New England and over the Eastern Townships and New Brunswick. By this point, Irene is expected to be a weak category 1 or tropical storm. In either case, Irene will be capable of large amounts of rain and strong winds.

Update 2011-08-26: Preliminary over-flight observations this morning indicate Irene has dropped just below category 3 status. Further analysis suggests that intensification is not likely, but will still make landfall at the Outer Banks at or near category 3 strength in 36 hours. Current tracking places it into New England in 60 hours.

Update 2011-08-25: Hurricane Irene is now a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Further strengthening is expected. Irene is considered a large tropical cyclone, with hurricane winds out to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 290 miles.

Update 2011-08-24: Hurricane Irene is expected to reach category 3 later today.

Update 2011-08-23: Hurricane Irene is now category 2. Upper level shear is holding back development some, but it is expected to intensify to category 3 (major hurricane) over the next 36 hours. All models are coming into track agreement (see image below).

Update 2011-08-22: TS Irene has now attained hurricane status. Expectations are that Irene could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater).

Tropical Storm Irene continues to develop and represents the first major storm of the season with true hurricane potential. Irene is the 9th named storm so far. Current model track estimates suggest hurricane strength along much of the Leewards and warnings have been raised. The NHC offical track still puts it at a tropical storm reaching Category 1 by the time it gets to Florida.

Hurricane Irene 2011-08-27. Official track in white. Purple -GFDL model. Blue-HWRF model. Green-GFS model. Red-TVCN model. Numbers in dots are estimated category strength. Radii about centre are the hurricane and tropical storm wind radii. Light blue traces over the storm are air recon flights (when idicated). Storm image is GOES infared view.

Go to our Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane page for more information and links to official monitoring sites.

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