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Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and
The national Capital region
Issued by Environment Canada Toronto at 2:04 AM EST Thursday 3
February 2011.

Updated storm reports.
-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==

The low pressure centre which tracked across the lower Great Lakes
Is over the Atlantic early this morning. Much of southern and
Eastern Ontario received a wide swath of snow Tuesday night and 
Wednesday February second. Brisk to strong northeast winds 
accompanied the snow reducing visibilities significantly. Blizzard 
conditions affected some areas including Hamilton with 8 hours of 
blizzard conditions, with near blizzard conditions in nearby regions.

Even Wiarton willie was snow-bound, and didn't see his shadow, but 
graciously provided a snow observation.

The table below shows the total snowfall amounts and wind gusts 
received by Environment Canada as of 10 PM Wednesday. Snowfall 
amounts are difficult to measure where heavy winds accompanied the 
snow. Those observations are indicated as estimated amounts.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Location                   snowfall amounts (cm)

Windsor airport                     22
London airport                      19
Sarnia                              15-20 (estimate)
Kingsville                          20
Thornbury                           30
Hamilton (west mountain)            28 (estimate)
Niagara Escarpment (Thorold)        29
Dundas                              25
Burlington/Ancaster/waterdown       23 (estimate)
Fergus                              15
Kitchener                           15
Balaclava (ne of Owen Sound)        33
Wiarton                             23
Kincardine                          32
Orillia                             19
Coldwater (nw of Orillia)           20
Shanty Bay (near Barrie)            22
Muskoka                             17
Ashburn (N of Whitby)               20
N Richmond Hill                     17
Toronto                             13-19
Brampton                            19
Trenton                             17
Brighton                            15
Peterborough                        12-15 (estimate)
Cornwall                            25-30
Casselman (E of Ottawa)             20
Ottawa airport                      15
Gatineau                            12

                           Wind gusts (km/h)

Long Point                         118
Erieau (se of Chatham)              83
Port Weller (near St. Catharines)   84
Burlington                          84
Windsor                             78
London                              68
Toronto Island                      67

Please note that this summary contains the observations at the time 
of broadcast and does not constitute an official and final report of 
the weather events or the high impact events attributed to the 
weather events.

 

 

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Update 2010-02-02: As this major storm continues to track northeast, snow accumulations in southern Ontario will generally be less than anticipated in some areas due to the high ice, rain and sleet content of the precipitation from the warm sector of this massive extra-tropical cyclone. The cold front associated with the low will continue to produce cold snow over the Great Lakes region for the next 12-24 hours as the storm continues to feed moisture from the south into the circulation. Strong winds across the frontal boundaries will contribute to significant blowing snow and and lake effect snow in the lee areas of the Great Lakes for most of Wednesday, and as the snow pack chills, ground level whiteouts may be frequent in open areas.

A major storm system is expected to develop out of the central US and extend across southern Ontario and the US Northeast through Wednesday, February 3, 2011, bringing possible snowfall amounts to the lower Great Lakes basin in excess of 20 in. (50cm), with possible amounts to 18 in. (45cm). Forecast models are in good agreement as to the severity of the storm. This storm will be the first major storm for the GH-GTA; southwestern Ontario has already had record multi-day lake effect storms this winter.

This should be considered a dangerous winter storm. Heavy and blowing snow combined with a temperature of approximately -10C create a dangerous and life-threatening exposure risk.

The first panel below is the GFS model snow accumulation forecast through February 3, 2011,


and the following panel is the NAM 84hr forecast snow accumulation model. Both project anywhere from 30-45cm of snow for southwestern Ontario and the GH-GTA, and some lake effect enhancement is expected.

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