Update 2010-10-01: Total storm precipitation as recorded by KMHX NWS radar station at Morehead City, NC, for the period September 25, to October 1, 2010. The amount went off my scale for hurricane rain, and I had to re-scale it to show the total. Don’t know if that’s a local record or not but 30″ is a lot of rain over 5 1/2 days…

Storm Total Precipitation Morehead City, NC, (KMHX) Sept 25-Oct 1, 2010

Close-in view of the centre area of the previous DSP scan:

Update 2 2010-09-30: The following two images are the digital storm total precipitation scans from NWS radar stations KLTX, Wilmington, North Carolina, and KMHX, Morehead City, NC.
The KLTX scan covers a longer than usual DSP period: 4 1/2 days, from the 25th September to about 1:00 today when the scan was recorded. Wilmington has received in that period approx 460mm rain, or about 18 inches.

Total Storm Precipitation, 25/09/2010-30/09/2010, KMHX Morehead City

The corresponding scan from KMHX, covers a shorter period, approx. 2 1/4 hours, from 9 AM on September 28, to about 1 PM today when the scan was recorded. This second scan shows Wilmington having received about half the total since the 28th.

Total Storm Precipitation 28/09/2010-30/09/2010 KLTX Wilmington, North Carolina.

Whats more critical, is that there is substantially more rain headed to this region from the flow along the coast out of the Carribean, much more, as the Funktop GOES enhancement below indicates (click on image for current status).

Update 2010-09-30: Considerable discussion amongst weatherfolks and tropical storm watchers as to whether this current active storm system is a Nicole remnant or not. Some believe the NWS was way premature in declaring Nicole dissipated. My own view is that this system hitting the US eastern seaboard starting yesterday and for the next 24 hours was not part of Nicole. The low pressure centre generating this was clearly evident while Nicole was still south of Cuba two days ago. Cyclonic circulation of Nicole was evident on radar over Cuba while this storm was sweeping into the east coast as a extra-tropical wave. Two distinct meteo events.

What does appear to have happened is that Nicole did lose its tropical characteristic but reformed as a strong extra-tropical system and has been absorbed into the baroclinic low moving up the seaboard. Click on the image below to see the remnants of Nicole and the storm flow into the coast line. The false colour imaging is a Funk model colour scheme (“funktop”), measuring intensity of precipitation. Cyclonic activity is clearly gone; however, there remains considerable moist low pressure upwelling over the Carribean south of Cuba feeding the northward flow. Indications are that the heavy rain pattern over the eastern seaboard will persist for several days.

Update 2010-09-29: Bizarre series of prognostications… NHC categorizes tropical depression 16 as Tropical Storm Nicole this morning, only to declare it dissipated this afternoon? Beyond Nicole, the dominant weathermaker is a large non-tropical low situated north of Nicole and hugging the eastern seaboard. This system is expected to drop copious amounts of rain from Florida to New York over the next 24-36 hours. For current hurricane and tropical storm information go to Atlantic Hurricane Activity 2010.

Joe Bastardi of Accuweather thinks so. Here’s his light-hearted perspective and following that, his explanation for the tropical weather season this year.

Carribean development - lighter side

Bastardi on hurricane season 2010

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