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Update 2010-10-01: Total storm precipitation as recorded by KMHX NWS radar station at Morehead City, NC, for the period September 25, to October 1, 2010. The amount went off my scale for hurricane rain, and I had to re-scale it to show the total. Don’t know if that’s a local record or not but 30″ is a lot of rain over 5 1/2 days…

Storm Total Precipitation Morehead City, NC, (KMHX) Sept 25-Oct 1, 2010

Close-in view of the centre area of the previous DSP scan:

Update 2 2010-09-30: The following two images are the digital storm total precipitation scans from NWS radar stations KLTX, Wilmington, North Carolina, and KMHX, Morehead City, NC.
The KLTX scan covers a longer than usual DSP period: 4 1/2 days, from the 25th September to about 1:00 today when the scan was recorded. Wilmington has received in that period approx 460mm rain, or about 18 inches.

Total Storm Precipitation, 25/09/2010-30/09/2010, KMHX Morehead City

The corresponding scan from KMHX, covers a shorter period, approx. 2 1/4 hours, from 9 AM on September 28, to about 1 PM today when the scan was recorded. This second scan shows Wilmington having received about half the total since the 28th.

Total Storm Precipitation 28/09/2010-30/09/2010 KLTX Wilmington, North Carolina.

Whats more critical, is that there is substantially more rain headed to this region from the flow along the coast out of the Carribean, much more, as the Funktop GOES enhancement below indicates (click on image for current status).

Update 2010-09-30: Considerable discussion amongst weatherfolks and tropical storm watchers as to whether this current active storm system is a Nicole remnant or not. Some believe the NWS was way premature in declaring Nicole dissipated. My own view is that this system hitting the US eastern seaboard starting yesterday and for the next 24 hours was not part of Nicole. The low pressure centre generating this was clearly evident while Nicole was still south of Cuba two days ago. Cyclonic circulation of Nicole was evident on radar over Cuba while this storm was sweeping into the east coast as a extra-tropical wave. Two distinct meteo events.

What does appear to have happened is that Nicole did lose its tropical characteristic but reformed as a strong extra-tropical system and has been absorbed into the baroclinic low moving up the seaboard. Click on the image below to see the remnants of Nicole and the storm flow into the coast line. The false colour imaging is a Funk model colour scheme (“funktop”), measuring intensity of precipitation. Cyclonic activity is clearly gone; however, there remains considerable moist low pressure upwelling over the Carribean south of Cuba feeding the northward flow. Indications are that the heavy rain pattern over the eastern seaboard will persist for several days.

Update 2010-09-29: Bizarre series of prognostications… NHC categorizes tropical depression 16 as Tropical Storm Nicole this morning, only to declare it dissipated this afternoon? Beyond Nicole, the dominant weathermaker is a large non-tropical low situated north of Nicole and hugging the eastern seaboard. This system is expected to drop copious amounts of rain from Florida to New York over the next 24-36 hours. For current hurricane and tropical storm information go to Atlantic Hurricane Activity 2010.

Joe Bastardi of Accuweather thinks so. Here’s his light-hearted perspective and following that, his explanation for the tropical weather season this year.

Carribean development - lighter side

Bastardi on hurricane season 2010


Update 2010-09-28:Lisa and Matthew now dissipated.

Update 2010-09-25: Lisa attained hurricane status over the last 24 hours but now shows evidence of weakening and increasing disorganization as it tracks northward over cooler water and into drier air. TS Matthew will continue to drop heavy rain as it moves across into Central America. For current hurricane and tropical storm information go to Atlantic Hurricane Activity 2010.

Update 2010-09-22: After making a fast close pass on Newfoundland, Igor moved out into the Labrador Sea and dissipated in thar region as a post-tropical storm.

Update 2 2010-09-21: Reports from Newfoundland this morning report severe flooding in certain areas, notably the Burin Peninsula, with roads being washed out. Clarenville and Sunnyside have declared a state of emergency due to washouts and failure of water and sewer systems. Some communities are becoming isolated by road damage.

Update 2010-09-21:Hurricane Igor continues it march up the Atlantic. Igor makes a close approach to Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula as it passes over the Grand Banks, bringing expected high winds and heavy rain to southern NFLD. Still a category 1 hurricane, Igor is not yet prepared to give up its tropical cyclone status, though by later tonight, it is expected to become an intense extra-tropical cyclone. Igor will be a major influence in the North Atlantic for several days yet. Tropical Storm Julia dissipated overnight.

Update 2010-09-20: Hurricane Igor has now moved past Bermuda and the principal rain bands are now clear of the island. Winds will remain at tropical storm intensity buty should begin to diminish there later in the day. Igor has picked up considerable speed as it moves to the northeast, and will make s close pass to Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula today and tomorrow. Igor is still ranked as a category 1 storm but is expected to diminish to tropical storm status within 48 hours. Canada has issued a tropical storm warning for the Avalon region. Julia continues to hold its strength as a tropical storm as it shadows Igor across the Atlantic.

Update 2010-09-19: Hurricane Igor, currently at category 1, has weakened some and is expected to continue to weaken as it moves further north into cooler water. Bermuda is expected to take a direct hit from Igor as a category 1 storm. The large size of Igor means that Bermuda will feel low hurricane and tropical storm force winds for a considerable period. Current track information suggests that it will past close to Newfoundland as a category 1 hurricane, by mid-week, although more likely as a tropical stoirm. As an extra-tropical cyclone, Igor is expected to remain a large and powerful storm well into the Labrador Sea. TS Julia is holding steady, but presents no threat to land.

Update 2010-09-18: Karl dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, Julia begins the dissipation process and is now a tropical storm. Igor remains a very large category 2 hurricane, and is expected to strengthen to category 3 through today as it makes for pretty much a direct hit on Bermuda early Monday morning as a category 2 storm with 90 knot sustained winds. BWS is projecting Igor to remain a category 1 hurricane as it swipes past south of the Canadian Maritimes, diminishing to an intense Atlantic cyclone south of Greenland.

Update 2010-09-17: Karl makes the majors and becomes a major hurricane at category 3 overnight. Landfall is expected later today and further strengthening is anticipated prior to landfall. This will be a major storm on Mexico, due to high winds and heavy rain. Funk satellite estimates have consistently shown heavy precipitation from Karl, even as a tropical storm. Igor is holding its strength as a category 3 hurricane, and is expected to have a significant impact on Bermuda. The Bermuda weather service forecasts its arrival at the island by 3AM Monday, as a category 2 storm.Julia strengthened a bit overnight, but is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours.

Update 3 2010-09-16: Karl has been upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. Julia continues to weaken, and Igor is presently at category 3.

Update 2 2010-09-16: Karl has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane (>65kt winds) as it moved over into the Gulf of Mexico. the NHC advises there is potential for Karl to become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) by Friday night. This upgrade is earlier than was previously forecast. Karl’s track has been modified to be slightly south of previous forecast. Igor remains strong, and Julia continues to weaken as it moves into cooler northerly waters.

Update 2010-09-16: Igor continues relentlessly and has strengthed some, and has apparently completed an eyewall replacement cycle with indications of deep convection indicating intensification. Track estimates still place it in the vicinity of Bermuda, with a possible trend to a more easterly track. Julia continues to weaken as it moves quickly northward over less warmer water. TS Karl is moving out into the Bay of Campeche and is expected to slow and intensify to a cat 1 hurricane by Friday night.

Update 2010-09-15: The surprise this morning is Hurricane Julia, having made an unexpected leap in intensity to a category 4 hurricane. This makes Igor and Julia only the second pair of coincident cat 4 Atlantic hurricanes in the last 100 years, Ryan Maue reports this morning in a WUWT article. Karl is expected to become a hurricane once it enters the gulf of Mexico after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula.

Aqua satellite view of spectacular Igor (Sept 13, 2010. Click on image to enlarge – warning large file):

Category 4 Hurricane Igor Sept. 13, 2010

Eye detail from image above:

Eye of Hurricane Igor, Sept 13, 2010

Youtube video of the eye in motion:

And the original source file for the youtube video (caution – this is a very large animated gif file and takes a while to load in its entirety):

Covers the period 16:40 – 20:39 UTC, Sept 13, 2010


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